Market Snapshot | August 22, 2023

Corn is mostly 5 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing spillover pressure from the soy complex.
• USDA reported daily sales of 224,000 MT for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 112,000 MT is for delivery during 2024-25 and 112,000 MT is for delivery during 2025-26.  
• On Day 1 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, scouts found an average corn yield of 157.42 bu. per acre in South Dakota, up from 118.45 bu. last year and the three-year average of 149.71 bu. In Ohio, samples yielded an average yield of 183.94 bu. per acre, up from 174.17 bu. per acre in 2022 and up from the three-year average of 175.64 bu. per acre.
• Today, scouts on the eastern leg of the Tour will sample routes from Noblesville, Indiana to Bloomington, Illinois, and scouts on the western leg will sample central and southern Nebraska. Tour results for Indiana and Nebraska will be posted on our website later today.
• USDA rated 58% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one percentage point from last week, while the portion rated “poor” to “very poor” rose two points to 15%. When USDA’s ratings are plugged into the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500 point-scale, with 500 representing perfect) the corn crop fell 2.4 points to 350.2 but is 5.4 points (1.6%) above last year at this time.
• Crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn yield estimate unchanged at 175 bu. per acre and notes a neutral bias going forward. He continues to estimate production at 15.10 billion bu.
• December corn futures are being hemmed by the 10-day moving average of $4.86, while initial support continues to lie at $4.73 3/4.

Soybeans are trading 13 to 20 cents lower, while September meal futures are over $7.50 lower. September soyoil is nearly 170 points lower.

• Soybean futures are edging lower after trading the highest level since late July in the previous session and are under pressure from fading meal and soyoil futures.
• On Day 1 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, scouts found pod counts in a 3’x3’ square to average 1,013 in South Dakota, up from 871.4 last year, but down from the three-year average of 1,039.71. Meanwhile, scouts in Ohio found an average pod count of 1,252.93 in Ohio, up from 1,131.6 in 2022 and above the three-year average of 1,160.9.  
• The Midwest and Great Plains will see restricted rainfall over the next ten days, especially in the western Corn and Soybean Blet and in the middle two-thirds of the Plains, according to World Weather Inc. The forecaster notes the current heatwave will break down late this week and into the weekend with cooler air likely in the northern Plains and Great Lakes region, with most of the heat becoming confined to the southern states.
• USDA rated 59% of the crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from a week ago, though the “poor” to “very poor” rating increased one point to 13%. On our weighted CCI, the soybean crop fell 0.3 points to 348.9 and is now 2.4 points (0.7%) above last year at this time.
• Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his soybean yield estimate unchanged at 51.0 bu. per acre, changing his bias from neutral to higher to neutral, given prevailing hot, dry conditions through much of the Midwest. Cordonnier continues to forecast production at 4.21 billion bu.
• November soybeans have turned below support at $13.51 1/4 and the 40-day moving average of $13.47, though additional support lies at $13.40 1/2 and the 20-day moving average of $13.36 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $13.76 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 2 cents  lower, while HRW futures are around 3 to 4 cents lower. HRS contracts are mostly 6 to 9 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are posting mild losses despite notable selling in corn and soy futures and strength in the U.S. dollar.
• USDA rated 38% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” down four points from last week. The portion of the crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased three percentage points to 23%. On our weighted CCI, the spring wheat crop fell 4.6 points to 316.1, which is 53.6 points (14.5%) below last year.
• Earlier today, Russia’s Sovecon agriculture consultancy has raised its wheat harvest forecast for 2023 to 92.1 MMT from 87.1 million.
• September SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $6.11 1/4, while initial support remains at $5.89 3/4.

Live cattle are posting heavy losses, while feeders are moderately lower.

• Live cattle are marking heavy losses, filling Monday’s gap, though underlying bullish fundamentals remain.
• Cash cattle averaged $185.04 last week, an 84 cent drop from the week prior.
• Wholesale beef prices declined on Monday with Choice falling 55 cents to $315.56, while Select dropped $1.03 to $287.33, taking the Choice/Select spread to $28.23. Movement was light at 64 loads.
• October live cattle have filled Monday’s gap, falling as low as $178.25, breaching support of $179.28 and $178.69. Additional support serves at $178.08, while the 10-day moving average of $180.13 stands as initial resistance.

Lean hogs mixed at midsession.

• Lean hogs have rallied from earlier lows, with the 100-day moving average proving solid support.
• The cash index continues to deteriorate, down 80 cents to $98.81 as of August 18, the lowest level in over a month.
• The pork cutout value dropped 96 cents on Monday to $105.21
• October lean hogs have traded as low as $80.40, in a breach of the 100- and 10-day moving averages of $80.29 and $80.14 and support at $79.86, but have rebounded to mark slight gains, though initial resistance serves at $81.17.