Market Snapshot | August 21, 2023

Corn is mostly 4 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures have given up earlier gains with pressure in SRW wheat is sending spillover weakness.
• The Pro Farmer Crop Tour begins today, with scouts sampling corn and soybean fields across the seven Crop Tour states over the next four days. Follow along with updates on our website and by searching #pftour23 on X (formerly Twitter). Scouts on the eastern leg of the tour will begin in Dublin, Ohio and work towards Noblesville, Indiana. Those on the western leg will scout fields between Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Grand Island, Nebraska. We’ll release Tour results for Ohio and South Dakota and stream the nightly results on our site tonight.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 111,770 MT for delivery to Mexico during 2023-24.
• USDA reported weekly export inspections of 482,526 MT for week ended Aug. 17, which rose 23,496 MT from the previous week. Inspections were near the top-end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 550,000 MT.
• China’s Ministry of Finance has arranged for a one-time subsidy fund of 2.4 billion yuan ($329.67 million) for fertilizers and pesticides for crops grown in northern China in the wake of heavy rains and flooding in recent weeks, which is elevated concerns of increased pest and disease damage.
• Brazilian farmers had harvested 77% of the safrinha corn crop in the center-south region as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. Harvest efforts continue to trail last year’s pace of 89% for the same period.
• December corn has traded the highest level since Aug. 11, though resistance at the 20-day moving average of $5.04 continues to curb bull efforts. Meanwhile initial support continues to serve at $4.86 3/4.

Soybeans are trading a penny to 6 cents higher, while September meal futures are around 80 cents higher. September soyoil is over 50 points higher.

• Soybean futures have fallen from overnight highs amid a retreat in meal futures and weak export inspection data.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 159,350 MT for delivery to unknown destinations during 2023-24.
• USDA reported weekly export inspections of 316,074 MT for week ended Aug. 17, which were down 101,831 MT from the previous week. However, inspections were within the pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
• World Weather Inc. states dry weather will dominate the central U.S. and western Midwest, the middle three fourths of the Great Plains and northern Delta for at least another 10 days following a dry weekend. However, cooling is expected in the Midwest Friday through the first part of next week.
• China’s soybean imports from the U.S. plunged 63% in July from a year earlier while shipments from Brazil, its top supplier, surged 32%, spurred by a bumper crop and lower prices. However, from January to July, soybean shipments to China from the U.S. rose 10.8% year-over-year to 19.85 MMT.  
• Argentina is expected to begin planting their soybean crop soon, though the drought has not improved much. World Weather Inc. maintains drought will persist over the next ten days. Meanwhile, producers are holding onto last year’s drought ridden crop amid currency risk and concerns of another year of poor production.
• November soybeans gapped higher overnight and have reached the highest level since July 28, filling the gap from July 28 and July 31. Initial resistance stands at $13.70 3/4, while support lies at the intraday low of $13.61.

SRW wheat futures are 6 to 9 cents lower, while HRW futures a 12 to 13 cents lower. HRS contracts are around 8 to 11 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are giving up a portion of Friday’s gains as Ukraine works to ship grain from Black Sea ports.
• USDA reported weekly export inspections of 311,314 MT in week ended Aug. 17, which rose 42,046 MT from the previous week. Inspections were within the pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
• Ukraine is finalizing a scheme with global insurers to cover grain ships traveling to and from its Black Sea ports, according to the Financial Times.
• The European Union’s crop monitoring service reduced its forecast for this year’s soft wheat yields for a third consecutive month and warned of a significant decline in wheat quality to after summer rains.
• September SRW futures are trading mostly between the 10-day moving average of $6.17 1/4 and support at $5.95 3/4.

Live cattle are notably higher, while feeders post sharp gains.

• Live cattle futures are posting strong gains amid Friday’s bullish Cattle on Feed data and strengthening wholesale prices.
• Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report estimated there were 11.03 million head of cattle in large feedlots as of Aug. 1, down 259,000 head (2.3%) from year-ago and 140,000 head less than the average pre-report estimate. Placements fell 8.3% from year-ago levels in July, while Marketing dropped 5.3%. Placements were lower than anticipated after consecutive months of topping expectations.
• Wholesale beef prices continued to firm Friday, with Choice gaining $1.97 to $316.11, while Select rose $2.10 to $288.36. Movement was light, however, at 92 loads for the day.
• October live cattle gapped higher at the open and has traded as high as $180.50 in a breach of the 40-, 10- and 20-day moving averages of $180.17, $180.33 and $180.47, respectively. Additional resistance stands at $181.21, while the 50-day moving average of $179.09 provides support.

Lean hogs are posting moderate losses midsession.

• Lean hogs are handing back a portion of Friday’s gains amid continued weakness in the cash index. Though futures’ notable discount to the cash index should limit selling efforts.
• The CME lean hog index is down 71 cents to $99.61, marking the tenth straight day lower.
• The pork cutout value fell $1.62 on Friday to $106.17, amid declines in all cuts except butts.
• October lean hogs are trading mostly within the 20-day moving average of $82.41, which serves as initial resistance and the 10-day moving average of $80.54, which is providing support.