Market Snapshot | August 17, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is mostly 4 to 5 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are taking spillover strength from soybeans, while a hot, dry forecast is also supportive.
  • Corn maturation will be sped up by the coming period of hot, dry weather, with small reductions in kernel size possible in drier areas where the crop is least advanced, according to World Weather Inc.
  • USDA reported net old-crop corn sales of 233,500 MT in week ended Aug. 10, which were up 55% from the previous week and 16% from the four-week average. Net sales of 704,700 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range from 0 to 250,000 MT for 2022-23 and 500,000 MT to 1.0 MMT for 2023-24.
  • The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2023-24 global corn production by 1 MMT to 1.221 billion MT.
  • The U.S. is preparing to escalate its complaint that Mexico’s ban on genetically modified (GM) corn violates the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The office of the U.S. Trade Representative plans to request the formation of a dispute resolution panel under USMCA, Bloomberg reported.
  • December corn futures have tested resistance at $4.86 1/4, with the 10-day moving average of $4.89 3/4 serving as the next area of resistance. Initial support remains at $4.75 1/4.

Soybeans are trading 12 to 13 cents higher, while September meal futures are around $2.00 lower. September soyoil is around 90 points higher.

  • Soybean futures are extending higher for the second straight session on a hot, dry weather forecast through the end of August and notable new-crop export sales.
  • World Weather Inc. reports the Midwest will be dry over the next nine or 10 days, which will be accompanied by hot temps, especially in the western Corn Belt where some areas will suffer from heat and moisture stress over time.
  • USDA reported net soybeans sales of 93,600 MT for 2022-23, which were down 77% from the previous week and 42% from the previous four-week average, while net sales for 2023-24 totaled 1.407 MMT. Traders expected sales to range from 0 to 400,000 MT for 2022-23 and 550,000 MT to 1.3 MMT for 2023-24.
  • November soybeans have pushed above the 200-day moving average of $13.32 1/4, with resistance at the 40- and 20-day moving averages of $13.44 3/4 and $13.46 1/4, respectively. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of $13.16 is serving as initial support.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents lower, while HRS contracts are around a penny lower.

  • SRW wheat futures are posting losses for the fifth straight session amid a weak technical posture and a lack of fresh supportive news.
  • India is in talks with Russia to import wheat via government-to-government deals at a discount to surging global prices. The last time India imported a significant amount of wheat was in 2017.
  • For 2023-24, USDA reported wheat export sales of 359,500 MT for week ended Aug. 10, which were down 37% from the previous week, but up 3% from the previous four-week average. Traders expected sales to range from 200,000 to 525,000 MT.
  • September SRW futures spiked support at $5.90 1/4 and the May 31 low of $5.87 3/4 before rebounding. The next area of support lies at $5.82 3/4, while resistance stands at $6.06 1/4.

Live cattle are posting notable losses, while feeders are sharply lower.

  • Live cattle futures are posting followthrough weakness as technicals erode, limiting buyer interest.
  • So far, only light cash cattle trade has been reported at around $1.00 lower prices in the Southern Plains. Negotiations have been quiet in the northern market, where supplies are tighter.
  • Wholesale beef prices posted strong gains for the third day in a row, with Choice rising $1.73 to $308.99 and Select up $1.74 to $284.77. A jump in wholesale prices is improving packer margins, though they remain in the red. Cash sources signal packers will be reluctant to actively raise cash bids until their margins turn positive.
  • USDA reported net beef sales of 15,100 MT for 2023, up 2% from the previous week but down 13% from the four-week average.
  • October live cattle have traded as low as $178.125, the lowest intraday level since July 31, breaching support at $178.75 and $178.225. Additional support lies at $177.35, while resistance stands at $179.625.

Lean hogs are posting strong gains at midsession.

  • Lean hogs are rallying from Wednesday’s low despite weakening cash fundamentals.
  • The CME lean hog index is down another 90 cents, extending its seasonal decline since the end of July.
  • The pork cutout value fell $1.36 on Wednesday to $107.27, led lower by weakness in all cuts except butts.  
  • USDA reported net pork sales of 28,700 MT for 2023, up 29% from the previous week and 36% above the four-week average.
  • October lean hogs pushed above resistance at $78.68, $79.19 and $79.22. The 100-day moving average of $80.40 serves as the next area of resistance, while support lies at Wednesday’s close of $78.175.
 

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