Market Snapshot | August 14, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is 2 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are being led lower by sharp weakness in the wheat complex.
  • Corn maturation will be sped up by the coming period of warmer and drier weather and small reductions in kernel size may occur in the drier areas where the corn crop is least advanced, according to World Weather Inc.
  • USDA reported corn export inspections of 398,269 MT (15.7 million bu.) in week ended Aug. 10. Inspections rose 10,296 MT week-over-week. Traders anticipated inspections to range from 275,000 to 500,000 MT.
  • Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest reached 71% done as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, behind 85% on this date last year. While harvest has been slow, production is record-large.
  • December corn fell as low as $4.81, matching the July low. Below that, support would be at $4.77 1/2, while resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $4.95 1/2.

Soybeans are trading 11 to 14 cents higher, while September meal futures are around $5.00 higher. September soyoil is modestly firmer.

  • Soybean futures are higher amid strength in meal and forecasts for a return for warmer, drier weather after this week into the end of August.
  • USDA reported daily sales of 416,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations during 2023-24.
  • World Weather notes some soybeans in wetter areas will benefit from coming warmer temps, but the dry weather should last long enough to stress the crop in the drier areas and minor declines in yields may result if rain does not increase in the last week of the month.
  • USDA reported soybean inspections of 297,797 (10.9 million bu.) for week ended Aug. 10, which were up 13,420 MT from the previous week. Traders expected inspections to range from 150,000 to 350,000 MT.
  • Malaysian palm oil future fell overnight for a third straight session, with pressure stemming from a decline in rival oil prices, though higher exports limited losses.
  • November soybeans have pushed above the 10-day moving average of $13.18 1/2, with the 200-day moving average of $13.32 3/4, serving as the next area of resistance, while support lies at Friday’s close of $13.07 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 19 to 22 cents lower, while HRS contracts are 7 to 10 cents lower.

  • Winter wheat futures are facing pressure due to U.S. dollar strength.
  • A Russian warship fired warning shots on a Palau-flagged cargo vessel headed to the Ukrainian port of Izmail on Sunday. Ukraine “strongly condemned the provocative actions” of Russia, saying its navy “grossly violated the UN Charter, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and other norms of international law.
  • Since July 1, Ukraine has shipped 3.122 MMT of grains, 470,000 MT (17.7%) ahead of the same period last year.
  • USDA reported wheat export inspections of 183,289 (6.7 million bu.), short of the pre-report range of 275,000 to 550,000 MT. Inspections were down 109,675 MT from the previous week.
  • September SRW futures have traded as low as $6.06 1/4, the lowest level since June 1, with support serving at $6.05 1/4, then at the May 30 low of $5.87 3/4. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of $6.37 1/4 continues to serve as resistance.

Live cattle are narrowly mixed, while feeders are modestly lower.

  • Live cattle futures are trading quietly as traders anticipate another week of lengthy cash cattle negotiations.
  • Cash cattle trade developed late Friday at steady/firmer prices, though trading volume was expected to be relatively light. It’s unlikely there will be active trade ahead of USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report on Friday unless packers get aggressive with cash bids.
  • Wholesale beef prices were mixed Friday, with Choice rising 58 cents to $302.61, while Select fell 57 cents to $277.23, taking the Choice/Select spread to $25.38. Movement was light at 73 loads.
  • October live cattle are pivoting mostly between the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $181.60 and $181.32 after trading as low as $180.675. Support continues remains at $180.775, while resistance stands at $182.25.

Lean hogs are sharply lower at midsession.

  • Deferred lean hogs are notably lower amid weakening cash fundamentals. August hogs, which expire today, are holding near unchanged.
  • The CME lean hog index is down 85 cents to $103.06 as of Aug. 9, extending the recent string of price weakness. August hog futures expire today and will be cash settled Wednesday.
  • The pork cutout value fell $2.93 Friday to $110.08, led lower by a $22.47 drop in primal bellies.
  • October lean hogs have extended below support at $80.06 to the lowest level since July 3. Additional support lies at $78.79, while the 40-day moving average of $82.08 serves as resistance.
 

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