Market Snapshot | August 11, 2023

Corn is chopping around unchanged at midmorning.

• Corn futures continue in rangebound trade ahead of USDA’s August crop reports.
• USDA will release initial survey-based corn crop estimate in its Crop Production Report at 11 a.m. CT, which will be based mostly on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. USDA will also update its U.S. and global balance sheets. Click here to view the pre-report estimates.
• Earlier today, China left is 2023-24 August crop output estimates unchanged, despite flooding in key growing areas in the north and northeastern China after typhoon Doksuri brought record-breaking rain. Reports indicate 4 MMT to 5 MMT of corn, or about 2% of the country’s output has been affected by the floods, Reuters reported.
• USDA reported daily sales of 143,637 MT to Mexico for 2023-24.
• December corn continues to trade narrowly, with $5.00 serving as initial resistance, while support lies around $4.93.

Soybeans are trading mostly 8 lower, while September meal futures are around $1.50 lower. September soyoil is modestly weaker.

• Soybean futures are facing moderate pressure as traders cautiously await USDA’s August data that will include the first survey-based soybean crop estimate and updates to the domestic and global balance sheets.  
• World Weather Inc. notes Midwest weather has improved, and warmer temps and less frequent rain next week should prove favorable for the production region except in the pockets that remain too dry. The Delta and southeastern states will also experience a favorable mix of weather.
• Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a third consecutive week, weighed down by weakness in rival vegetable oils on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, though an increase in exports offered some support.
• November soybeans failed to find buying above the 10-day moving average of $13.19 3/4, with additional resistance at the 200-day moving average of $13.32 3/4. Initial support lies at $13.06.

SRW wheat is mostly 4 to 5 cents lower, while HRW is 8 to 9 cents lower. HRS contracts are 1 to 4 cents lower.

• Winter wheat futures are under pressure amid mild strength in the U.S. dollar and a lack of fresh supportive news from the Black Sea.
• A vessel carrying about 30,000 MT of Polish wheat is being prevented from unloading at the port of Houston due to contamination with corn, people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg News.
• The Northern Plains will see a mostly favorable mix of rain and sunshine in the next seven days in the eastern half of the region, while rainfall in the western half will continue to be limited. That will be problematic for central and northern Montana as the area has the lowest topsoil moisture in the region, according to World Weather.
• September SRW futures dipped below initial support at $6.33 3/4, with additional support at $6.29 3/4. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of $6.44 continues to serve as initial resistance.

Live cattle and feeders are mixed.

• Live cattle futures are trading in a choppy, narrow range, with traders expecting cash cattle negotiations to extend into this afternoon.
• Limited cash cattle trade was reported Thursday as packers remained committed to not raising cash cattle bids above last week’s levels and feedlots held out for higher prices. Unless either side budges in cash negotiations, it’s setting up to be a light week of trade.
• Wholesale beef prices dropped Thursday, with Choice falling $1.49 to $302.03, while Select slipped 34 cents to $277.80, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $24.23. Movement totaled 107 loads.
• October live cattle are trading narrowly within Thursday’s range, with solid support around $181.50, while initial resistance remains at $183.47.

Lean hogs are mostly firmer at midsessioin.

• Lean hog are posting cautious gains following sharp losses and a technical breakdown in the previous session.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 43 cents, marking the eighth decline in the past 10 days, but is only down $2.09 from the July 28 peak.
• August lean hog futures, which expire Monday and will be cash settled Wednesday, are trading at more than a $2.00 discount to the cash index.
• The pork cutout value gained $3.89 on Thursday to $113.01, led by an $18.84 gain in primal bellies. Movement totaled 251.8 loads.
• October lean hogs marked the lowest intraday price since July 3, in a breach of support at $79.78, before modestly rebounding. Additional support lies at $79.23, while initial resistance stands at $81.15.