Weekly Farm Fuels Bulletin | Diesel Firms Slightly

Posted on 03/20/2018 12:11 PM

 

Farm Dieseldiesel chart

  • Farm diesel prices were generally higher on the week with Missouri leading gains.
  • Heating oil futures drafted higher this morning on a surge in WTI futures.
  • Distillate inventories fell once again on the week according to EIA, but remain roughly at the midpoint of the five-year average supply range.
  • Price action from state to state was widely mixed this week, but we expect spring fieldwork to install a hard floor under farm diesel in the coming weeks. This week's penny per gallon gain may be the first signal that bottom is in place, but upside risk and downside potential for retail diesel are about dead even right now so we will await confirmation before finishing booking spring diesel.
  • Our farm diesel/heating oil futures spread indicates pending near-term downside potential.

Propanepropane price chart

  • Retail propane prices fell a penny per gallon this week although most states were unchanged.
  • According to EIA, national propane stocks fell on the week and are currently running just below the five-year average range.
  • Peak demand season has ended with the advent of calendar spring, but a cold snap could usher in higher prices if customers are running low.
  • As a reminder, pencil-in a 10-15 cent year-on-year rise in propane prices this year as we expect robust export activity to continue to prop up prices in the coming year.

Fuel
3/5/18
3/12/18
Week-over Change
Current Week
Fuel
Farm Diesel
$2.36
$2.40
+1 cent
$2.41
Farm Diesel
LP
$1.47
$1.47
-1 cent
$1.46
LP

farm diesel and heating oil futures spread


 

 

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