First U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates the highlight of Friday's reports

USDA report preview
USDA report preview
(Pro Farmer)

USDA’s initial survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates in the Aug. 11 Crop Production Report will be based mostly on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. The first cotton crop estimate will include objective yield data from southern Texas. Any changes to the U.S. wheat crop estimates this month are typically minor. USDA will also update its U.S. and global balance sheets. The following estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.

Expectations for U.S. Corn, Soybean and Cotton Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

15.135

175.5

Range

14.885 – 15.361

172.4 – 178.0

USDA July proj.

15.320

177.5

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

4.246

51.3

Range

4.173 - 4.300

50.5 – 52.0

USDA July proj.

4.300

52.0

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Average est.

15.78

NA

Range

15.25 – 16.30

NA

USDA July proj.

16.50

831

 

Expectations for U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.739

Range

1.710 – 1.775

USDA July

1.739

USDA 2022

1.650

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.209

Range

1.196 – 1.226

USDA July

1.206

USDA 2022

1.104

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

578

Range

570 – 585

USDA July

577

USDA 2022

531

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

425

Range

420 – 435

USDA July

422

USDA 2022

337

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

Average est.

206

Range

200 – 214

USDA July

207

USDA 2022

236

 

Other spring wheat – million bu.

Average est.

477

Range

456 – 495

USDA July

479

USDA 2022

482

 

Durum wheat – million bu.

Average est.

55

Range

54 – 58

USDA July

54

USDA 2022

64

 

 

Expectations for U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

 

2022-23

2023-24

Average est.

1.410

2.168

Range

1.277 – 1.457

1.961 – 2.358

USDA July

1.402

2.262

 

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

 

2022-23

2023-24

Average est.

251

267

Range

220 – 276

191 – 360

USDA July

255

300

 

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

 

2022-23

2023-24

Average est.

NA

598

Range

NA – NA

560 – 635

USDA July

580

592

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

 

2022-23

2023-24

Average est.

NA

3.40

Range

NA

2.64 – 3.75

USDA July

3.25

3.80

 

Expectations for Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2022-23

2023-24

Average est.

296.80

313.83

Range

296.00 – 299.92

310.00 – 322.30

USDA July

296.30

314.12

 

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2022-23

2023-24

Average est.

102.74

120.04

Range

101.75 – 103.11

118.00 – 122.60

USDA July

102.90

120.98

 

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2022-23

2023-24

Average est.

269.25

265.92

Range

268.60 – 270.46

264.00 – 267.30

USDA July

269.31

266.53

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2022-23

2023-24

Average est.

NA

93.76

Range

NA

91.50 – 94.60

USDA July

93.95

94.52

 

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