Market Snapshot | August 3, 2023

Corn is mostly 3 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are trading lower for the eighth straight session and continue to take spillover weakness from the wheat complex.
• The latest drought monitor map, with data as of Tuesday, showed the Midwest has the highest coverage of drought but saw a 6.5% decline in drought area to 76.1%. Iowa remains 100% too dry, but this does not include some heavy rainfall since Tuesday that fell in the southwest part of the state. Over 95% of Illinois remains too dry, while Indiana’s drought category declined 20 points to 53.7%.
• USDA reported old-crop corn export sales of 107,500 MT for week ended June 27, which were down 66% from the previous week and four-week average. Net sales of 348,900 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range from 150,000 to 500,000 MT for 2022-23 and 200,000 to 700,000 MT for 2023-24.
• December corn has posted the lowest intraday level since July 13. Initial support lies at $4.90 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $5.07.

Soybeans are trading mostly 5 to 8 cents higher, while September meal futures are nearly $6.00 higher. Soyoil is around 70 points lower.

• Soybean futures are mildly rebounding from Wednesday’s losses, with meal strength leading the complex higher.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 134,000 MT to China for 2023-24.
• USDA reported weekly net soybean sales of 90,600 MT for 2022-23, which were down 54% from the previous week and 16% from the four-week average. Net sales of 2.631 MMT for 2023-24 included 1.574 MMT to “unknown destinations” and 859,000 MT to China. Traders expected sales of 50,000 to 400,000 MT for 2022-23 and 1.0 MMT to 2.5 MMT for 2023-24.
• World Weather Inc. reports U.S. crop weather looks to be favorable during the next two weeks with timely rainfall occurring in most areas, although the far northwestern Corn Belt may continue to miss out on best rainfall for a while longer.
• November soybeans are trading within Wednesday’s range, with the 40- and 200-day moving averages of $13.31 1/4 and $13.34 1/4, respectively, serving up solid resistance. Initial support lies at Wednesday’s low of $13.15.

SRW wheat is mostly 6 to 10 cents lower, while HRW is 16 to 19 cents lower. HRS contracts are 7 to 11 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are under persisting pressure as global supplies concerns ease as grain continues to move out of Ukrainian ports despite Russia’s attacks.
• Romania said it will clear customs for up to 30 ships waiting to enter from Ukrainian ports on the Danube River over the next two days, signaling trade has not halted despite Russian attacks on Ukraine’s main river port.
• Wheat export sales totaled 421,300 MT in week ended July 27, up 81% from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average. China was the top buyer at 138,500 MT. Traders expected sales between 200,000 and 500,000 MT for 2023-24.
• September SRW futures have reached the lowest level since July 13, with initial support at $6.22 1/2, while resistance stands at $6.53 1/4.

Live cattle are posting gains, while feeders are also higher.

• Live cattle are modestly higher as traders wait on cash trade to develop.
• Given fresh contract supplies to pull from, it appears packers may be content to buy a small number of cattle in negotiated trade again this week.
• Wholesale beef prices dropped on Wednesday, with a $2.92 drop in Choice to $303.18, while Select fell $2.13 to $277.47, though movement increased to 134 loads.
• USDA reported net beef export sales of 12,400 MT for 2023, down 42% from the previous week and 28% from the four-week average.
• October live cattle pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $180.30, while the 20-day moving average of $180.97 serves as resistance. Initial support lies at $179.80.

Lean hogs are posting heavy losses at midsession.

• August lean hogs are sharply lower amid additional indications a seasonal top has been carved.
• The CME lean hog index is down another dime today, and while losses have been minimal, it marks the third decline in four days.
• The pork cutout value fell $3.63 to $111.63 amid losses in all cuts except loins.
• USDA reported net pork export sales of 17,800 MT for 2023, down 30% from the previous week and 25% below the four-week average.
• October lean hogs gapped below the 10-day moving average of $84.12 and former support of $83.79 at the open and has extended below the 20-day moving average of $83.41 and support at $82.71. Additional support lies at the 40-day moving average of $81.26. Initial resistance lies at $83.79.