Market Snapshot | July 27, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is mostly unchanged to a penny higher midmorning.

  • Corn futures are taking spillover strength from wheat despite a surging U.S. dollar.

 

  • Ukrainian officials said missiles from a Russian submarine hit port infrastructure in the Odesa region overnight, damaging a cargo terminal and killing a security guard. Meanwhile, Russia’s Federal Security Services (FSB) said it found traces of explosives on board a foreign vessel en route from Turkey to Russia that had previously entered a Ukrainian port.

 

  • The latest drought monitor showed a small increase in drought across the country. The Midwest still has a large portion of the region in a dry zone with over 82% too dry, though that was down roughly two percentage points from last week. Iowa remains 100% in drought, while most of Illinois is too dry. Indiana is over 76% covered with drought.
  • USDA reported weekly corn export sales of 314,200 MT for 2022-23, which were up 33% from the previous week and 15% above the four-week average. Net sales of 335,80 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range between 100,000 and 500,000 MT for 2022-23 and 200,000 and 500,000 MT for 2023-24.

 

  • December corn continues to hover above the 100- and 10-day moving averages around $5.42, while resistance stands at $5.60 1/2.

 

Soybeans are trading mostly 4 to 6 cents lower, while August meal futures are around $3.50 higher. Soyoil is about 190 points lower.

  • Soybeans are trading choppily, with soyoil pressure capping gains, while soymeal strength limits downside.

 

  • USDA reported a daily soybean sale of 256,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24. This follows two daily sales totaling 501,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24 on Wednesday.

 

  • World Weather Inc. states the northwestern Corn Belt will have a tough time getting significant rain to fall for a while, though some showers are expected. The forecaster notes rains will favor southern areas of the Midwest during the Aug. 3-9 period, though temps should cool down a bit. 

 

  • USDA reported net soybean sales of 198,500 MT for week ended July 20, which were up notably from the previous week and 73% from the four-week average. Net sales 544,600 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range from 50,000 to 400,000 MT for 2022-23 and 300,000 to 800,000 MT for 2023-24.

 

  • November soybeans have notched an intraday high of $14.32 in a breach of resistance at $14.29 1/2, additional resistance stands at $14.39 1/4. Support continues to serve at $14.08 3/4.

 

SRW wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher, while HRW is around 11 to 14 cents higher. HRS contracts are 12 to 14 cents higher.

  • Wheat futures are recouping some of Wednesday’s losses as uncertainty looms around Black Sea supplies.

 

  • USDA reported net wheat sales of 232,200 MT, which were up 37% from the previous week but down 17% from the four-week average. Sales were within the expected range of 150,000 to 400,000 MT.

 

  • Crop scouts on Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council’s HRS tour found an average yield of 45.7 bu. per acre in north-central and northwest North Dakota, down from47.7 bu. in those areas last year, but above the five-year average of 38 bu. per acre.

 

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum that his country will not rejoin the Black Sea grain del. Putin accused Western nations of being the primary beneficiaries of Ukrainian exports while maintaining sanctions on Russia, insisting Moscow would move towards “a fairer system of resource distribution.”

 

  • September SRW wheat futures are trading within Wednesday’s range, with the 10-day moving average of $7.10 serving as support, while initial resistance stands at $7.48 1/2.

 

Live cattle are weaker, while feeders are modestly firmer.

  • Live cattle are favoring the downside as traders wait for active cash cattle trade to develop.

 

  • Packers have been hesitant to raise cash cattle bids given negative margin sand feedlots are in no hurry to move animals at lower prices. So far, only light cash cattle trade has been reported at higher prices.

 

  • Choice boxed beef prices fell 88 cents on Wednesday to $303.34, while Select rose $2.26 to $279.81, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $23.53. Movement totaled 114 loads for the day.

 

  • USDA reported net beef sales of 21,400 MT for 2023, up 2% from the previous week and 43% above the four-week average.

 

  • August live cattle are hovering around the 20-day moving average $178.10, with additional support at $177.41. Initial resistance stands at $179.14.

 

Lean hogs are narrowly mixed.

  • August lean hogs are pivoting around unchanged, with solid technical resistance causing traders to remain cautious buyers.

 

  • The CME lean hog index is up another 53 cents to $105.79 as of July 25, extending the prolonged seasonal rally and showing no signs or running out of steam.

 

  • The pork cutout value fell 31 cents to $112.75 on Wednesdays as declines in loins, butts, picnics and ribs offset strength in hams and bellies. Movement totaled 263.8 loads.

 

  • USDA reported net pork sales of 25,500 MT for 2023, which were up 33% from the previous week and 6% above the four-week average.

 

  • August lean hogs are trading within Wednesday’s range, with resistance at $102.00 while support lies at $100.63.
 

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