Market Snapshot | July 20, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer )

Corn is mostly 6 to 8 cents lower midmorning.

  • Corn futures are facing profit-taking amid weak export data and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
  • Heat is expected to build across the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains this weekend and the first half of next week. Hot temps are also expected to move into the Central Plains and Corn Belt early next week. Dry conditions are expected in much of the northern U.S. along with the heat, while the central and southern Corn Belt are likely to see periodic rains in the next 10 days.
  • The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map showed a slight increase in drought areas over the past week. A large section of the Midwest remains in a drought zone at 84.9% but that is down three percentage points from last week. Iowa remained 100% too dry, while most of Illinois remains too dry.
  • For week ended July 13, USDA reported net corn sales of 236,800 MT for 2022-23, which were down 49% from the previous week but up 6% from the four-week average. Net sales of 491,600 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range from 200,000 to 500,000 MT for 2022-23 and 50,000 to 500,000 for 2023-24.
  • December corn is trading within Wednesday’s broad range and is supported by the 100-day moving average at $5.43 1/2, while resistance remains at $5.67 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly unchanged to 2 cents lower, while August meal futures are modestly weaker. Soyoil is around 100 points higher.

  • November soybeans are facing pressure despite forecasts for hot, dry weather into early August.
  • World Weather believes cooler weather will evolve, mostly in late August, at which time some increase in rain is also expected. The forecaster states early August weather could be stressful for some areas, especially the northern Corn Belt.  
  • USDA reported net soybean sales of 127,000 MT for 2022-23, which were up 58% from the previous week, but down 43% from the four-week average. Net sales of 760,300 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range from 0 to 300,000 MT for 2022-23 and 150,000 to 700,000 for 2023-24.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains on Thursday to hit a four-month high as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal heightened concerns over edible oil supplies from the region.
  • November soybeans are trading within Wednesday’s range, with $14.28 3/4 serving as resistance, while support lies at $13.89 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are posting 1- to 2-cent gains, while HRS contracts are 2 to 5 cents higher.

  • SRW wheat futures have declined from the overnight highs despite escalating tensions between Russia/Ukraine.
  • Russia attacked Odesa and Mykolaiv on Thursday in a third straight night of air strikes on southern Ukrainian port cities. Moscow issued a new threat against Ukraine-bound vessels, prompting the White House to warn Russia may expand its targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities to include attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea.
  • Net drying in the next two weeks will cause concerns of crop stress to increase, especially in western areas of the Northern Plains where conditions are already driest and where the least amount of rain is expected to occur, according to World Weather. Some increase of rain may occur in the second week of the outlook, though its likely to be in eastern production areas.
  • USDA reported net wheat sales of 170,700 MT for week ended July 13, which were notably lower from the previous week and below the pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
  • September SRW wheat pushed as high as $7.50 3/4 but met resistance at $7.51 and is currently trading midrange. Support lies at $7.07 1/2.

Live cattle are marking strong gains, while feeders are also sharply higher.

  • Live cattle have posted a fresh contract high, underpinned by persisting bullish fundamentals.
  • So far cash cattle trade has been limited at roughly steady prices, though we expect prices to firm again as the norther market should be strong.
  • Choice boxed beef slid another $1.09 on Wednesday to $303.59, while Select fell 65 cents to $275.96, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $27.63. Seasonally, a low in wholesale beef prices should transpire soon and the slowing of packer slaughter runs to manage tight market-ready supplies should only help that process.
  • USDA reported net beef sales of 20,900 MT for 2023, up notably from last week and 60% above the four-week average.
  • August live cattle have reached as high as $182.975, extending above resistance at $182.12. Support lies around $181.08.

Lean hogs sharply higher at midsession.

  • August lean hogs are supported by their discount to the cash index.  
  • The CME lean hog index rose another 78 cents to $103.30 as of July 18.
  • The pork cutout fell 7 cents on Wednesday to $112.61, while movement totaled 288.4 loads.
  • USDA reported net pork sales of 19,200 MT for 2023, down 22% from last week and 28% below the four-week average.
  • August lean hogs gapped higher at the open and pushed above resistance at $98.825 and $99.725, with additional resistance serving at $101.125. Initial support lies at $97.425.
 

Latest News

After the Bell | March 27, 2024
After the Bell | March 27, 2024

After the Bell | March 27, 2024

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor
Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

Market Watch | March 27, 2024
Market Watch | March 27, 2024

Cash cattle prices soar to all-time high.

Baltimore Bridge Collapse: Limited Impact on Trade Basis Channel Reopening Timeline
Baltimore Bridge Collapse: Limited Impact on Trade Basis Channel Reopening Timeline

RFK Jr. VP | Dairy cattle bird flu update | John Deere layoffs | Dollar/yen exchange rate 34-year high

Ahead of the Open | March 27, 2024
Ahead of the Open | March 27, 2024

Corn and soybeans each favored the downside overnight, with corn leading the way lower. Wheat showed relative strength and went into the break near unchanged.

First Thing Today | March 27, 2024
First Thing Today | March 27, 2024

Corn, soybeans and wheat extended Tuesday’s losses during the overnight session.