Market Snapshot | July 19, 2023

Corn is mostly 17 to 19 cents higher midmorning.

• Corn futures have pulled back from earlier gains, which stemmed from additional attacks on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa.
• Russia launched an extensive air attack on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa for a second night in a row. Ukrainian Ag Minister Mykola Solsky said a “considerable” amount of grain export infrastructure at Chornomorsk port had been damaged in the attack. He noted the attack also destroyed 60,000 MT of grain that should have been shipped via the Black Sea grain deal.
• Mostly mild temps through Sunday along with soil moisture in place and showers and thunderstorms in parts of the lower and eastern Midwest into Thursday will maintain or improve conditions for corn pollination and crop development into the weekend, according to World Weather Inc. But hot, dry conditions will stress crops in northern areas of the Corn Belt.
• Ethanol production rose 38,000 barrels in week ended July 14, to 1.070 barrels per day (bpd), up 3.5% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased 508,000 barrels during the week to 23.166 million barrels.
• December corn briefly extended above the 100-day moving average of $5.45 1/4 but has retreated and is pivoting around the 40-day moving average of $5.39 3/4. The 20-day moving average of $5.24 1/2 is providing support.

Soybeans are mostly 13 to 22 cents higher, while August meal futures near unchanged. Soyoil is around 200 points higher.

• November soybeans have retreated from an over 13-month high, marked early in the session, amid easing price strength in meal futures.
• The Northern Plains will experience a net drying bias over the next 10 days, mostly in the central and western Dakotas, notes World Weather. Stressful conditions are also expected across northern areas of the Corn Belt.
• Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) set an international purchasing tender for vegetable oils with a July 26 deadline for offers. GASC is seeking an unspecified quantity of sunflower oil and soyoil for arrival between Aug. 20 and Sep. 5.
• November soybeans have marked an intraday high of $14.28 3/4 but are currently trading around resistance at $14.10 3/4. Support is at $13.89 1/2.

SRW wheat is posting 50-cent gains, while HRW wheat is mostly around 40 cents higher. HRS contracts are 20-plus cents higher.

• Wheat futures are extending sharply higher amid mounting global supply concerns as the Russia/Ukraine conflict escalates.
• Russia said the United Nations had three months to implement the terms of its portion of the previously agreed to grain deal if it wanted Moscow to resume talks about allowing safe Ukrainian grain exports to restart. Russia wants to see “concrete results” with its exports before it would consider restarting the Black Sea grain deal.
• Ukraine is setting up a temporary shipping route to maintain grain shipments, Kyiv said in an official letter dated July 18. The letter was submitted to the UN shipping agency, the International Shipping Organization, and stated it had “decided to establish on a temporary basis a recommended maritime route.”
• Five Central European EU members will jointly ask the EU to extend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports beyond a Sept. 15 deadline to avoid major market disruptions, Hungary’s farm minister told Reuters.
• September SRW wheat extended above the 100- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $6.77 3/4 as well as resistance at $6.83 and $6.95 1/4. Additional resistance stands at $7.15 3/4, while support lies at $6.62 1/2.

Live cattle are modestly lower, while feeders are marking sharp losses.

• Live cattle are lower amid mild profit-taking as traders wait for cash trade to develop.
• Recent cash cattle negotiations have pushed deep into the week, especially in the northern market. It is unlikely trade will develop early due to Friday’s Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports, unless packers get aggressive with bids.
• Choice beef boxes continued lower on Tuesday, dropping $2.10 to $304.68, while Select rose 87 cents to $276.61, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $28.67. Movement totaled 123 loads. The recent downturn in wholesale beef prices has dropped packer margins deeper into the red.
• August live cattle are trading within Tuesday’s range, with support lying $180.23. Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s high of $181.525.

Lean hogs are mostly lower at midsession, with modest gains in the August contract.

• August lean hogs are firming on extended strength in cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 93 cents to $102.53 as of July 17 and has reached the highest level since the first week of September last year. The index is up $31.35 from the April low but still more than $13.00 below last year at this time and nearly $20.00 below the August 2022 peak.
• Deferred lean hog futures are facing corrective selling.
• August lean hogs are hovering above the 10-day moving average of $95.99, while resistance stans at $97.64.