Market Snapshot | July 17, 2023

Corn is mostly 5 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures have retreated from earlier highs amid mostly favorable forecasts over the next 10 days.
• Much of the Midwest, Delta and southeastern crop areas will see timely rainfall over the next 10 days, though some restricted rain may continue from a part of the eastern Dakotas into part of Iowa and southern Minnesota to northern Illinois and a part of northern Missouri, according to World Weather Inc.
• Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest advanced to 36% done as of last Thursday, according to Agrural, but still trails last year’s pace of 53%.
• USDA reported export inspections of 363,818 MT (14.3 million bu.) for week ended July 13, which were up 14,231 MT from the previous week, but near the low end of the pre-report range from 275,000 to 850,000 MT.
• December corn has traded as high as $5.26 1/2, the highest level since June 29, with resistance at $5.27 1/4. Initial support lies at $5.02.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 5 cents higher, while August meal futures are nearly $6.00 higher. Soyoil is around 30 points higher.

• Soybeans are trading mostly higher, with soymeal leading the complex to the upside.
• Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report total June crush of 170.6 million bushels. While that would be down 4.1% from May, it would be up 3.6% from June 2022 and a record for the month. Soyoil stocks are expected to total 1.816 billion pounds.
• USDA reported export inspections of 155,556 (5.7 million bu.), which were down 145,209 MT from the previous week and near the low end of the pre-report range from 175,000 to 400,000 MT.
• November soybeans have reached as high as $13.88 3/4 in a test of resistance at $13.85 before pulling back. Additional resistance stands at $13.99 1/4, while support lies around $13.70.

SRW wheat is mostly 6 to 7 cents lower, while HRW wheat is posting 14- to 15-cent losses. HRS contracts are mostly 5 to 8 cents lower.

• Wheat futures have fallen from earlier highs as traders assess Russia’s exit from the Black Sea grain deal.
• Russia formally notified Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations it was suspending its participation in the Black Sea grain deal. Moscow said the halting of the deal had nothing to do with a Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Bridge over the weekend and it would return to the agreement as soon as the Russian part of the agreement was fulfilled.
• Russia’s grain exporting union says it will continue to meet all contractual obligations. Ukraine had previously said it had a Plan B for exports if Russia ended the deal. There is now greater uncertainty with grain movement out of the Black See region.
• USDA reported export inspections of 253,409 MT (9.3 million bu.) for week ended July 13, which were down 165,917 MT from the previous week and in the lower end of the pre-report range from 200,000 to 475,000 MT.
• September SRW wheat reached as high as $6.89 1/4, in an early breach of the 100- and 20-day moving averages of $6.79 1/4 and $6.80 1/4, respectively. Support lies around the 40-day moving average of $6.55 1/2.  

Live cattle are marking slight to moderate gains, while feeders are sharply higher.

• Live cattle are extending last week’s strength amid bullish expectations for cash cattle trade.
• There have bullish expectations for cash cattle trade this week after prices firmed late last week as higher prices in the northern market offset steady/weaker values in the Southern Plains.
• Wholesale beef prices continued lower Friday, with Choice down 97 cents to $305.94, while Select fell $3.57 to $276.61. Movement totaled 136 loads.
• August live cattle gapped higher at the open and marked a new high at $181.575. Initial support lies near $179.11.

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession.

• July lean hogs are trading modestly higher amid underlying strength in the cash fundamentals. The contract expires today.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 74 cents to $101.03 as of July 13.
• The pork cutout value surged $4.65 on Friday to $115.55.
• August lean hogs dropped through support at the 10-day moving average near $95.96, while initial resistance is at $97.34.