Market Snapshot | July 12, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

Corn futures have turned lower ahead of USDA’s July Supply & Demand Report.
Strong to severe storms occurred Tuesday night into this morning from southeastern South Dakota to east-central Nebraska to interior south-central and northern Iowa with parts of northern Illinois and norther Ohio seeing rain as well, notes World Weather Inc. Rainfall totals varied from 0.2 to 1.0 inch.
USDA’s updated balance sheets in the Supply & Demand Report at 11 a.m. CT will reflect adjustments to old-crop demand forecasts based on June 1 stocks. Traders expect cut to projected corn yield to offset the higher planted acreage estimate on the new-crop balance sheets.
Ethanol production averaged 1.032 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended July 7. That was down 28,000 bpd from the previous week but up 2.7% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased 398,000 barrels to 22.658 million barrels.
December corn continues to consolidate just above recent lows. The 10-day moving average of $5.04 3/4 is serving as resistance, while support remains at $4.94 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 12 to 14 cents higher, while August meal futures are nearly $8.00 higher. Soyoil is more than 40 points higher.

Soybeans are extending higher for the third straight session, with meal strength leading the complex.
A transition to drier weather will begin July 20 and continue through at least July 26, leaving much of the Midwest in need of a boost of rain, according to World Weather.
USDA reported daily soymeal sales of 105,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24.
Major new-crop changes will be reflected in today’s supply & demand data due to the large drop in planted acreage in the June 30 Acreage Report.
November soybeans have reached the June high of $13.78, with resistance serving at $13.80 1/4. Initial support lies at $13.57.

SRW Wheat futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents lower, while HRW and HRS contracts are 1 to 2 cents higher.

SRW wheat is struggling to find buyers ahead of USDA’s supply and demand data.
USDA will release its first all-wheat crop estimate, including the initial survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum.
World Weather notes U.S. HRW wheat areas will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next 10 days, disrupting harvest at times.
There are no new developments regarding the Black Sea Deal. Virtually every entity aside from Russia appears to want the deal extended by Moscow is showing no signs it will budge without significant concessions from the United Nations and Western countries.
September SRW wheat is trading inside Tuesday’s range, with $6.69 1/4 serving as initial resistance, while support remains at $6.47 3/4.

Live cattle are solidly firmer, while feeders are marking milder gains.

August live cattle futures marked a fresh contract high for a second straight day.
Momentum in futures this week suggests cash cattle will again trade higher, though there has been no activity of note yet.
Wholesale beef prices fell further on Tuesday with Choice falling $1.67 to $312.12, while Select dropped $2.09 to $280.24, though movement improved to 161 loads. Choice beef values are nearly $31.00 below their mid-June Peak.
August live cattle have extended as high $179.70, just shy of psychological resistance at $180.00. Initial support lies around $178.23.

Lean hogs are posting solid gains at midsession.

July lean hogs are extending higher as strengthening cash fundamentals continue to underpin prices.
The CME lean hog index is up another 51 cents to $98.66 as of July 10.
The pork cutout value rose another $4.04 on Tuesday, led by more than a $19 gain in primal bellies, though all other cuts except butts finished higher on the day, signaling widespread price strength. As BLT season approaches, bellies should continue to lead the seasonal wholesale climb.
August lean hogs gapped higher at the open and reached as high as $99.00 but have stopped short of initial resistance near $99.27. Support lies at Tuesday’s close of $97.575.

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