Evening Report | July 11, 2023
Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Big new-crop soybean balance sheet changes coming on Wednesday... USDA’s updated balance sheets in the July 12 Supply & Demand Report will reflect adjustments to old-crop demand forecasts based on June 1 stocks. There will be major changes on the new-crop soybean balance sheet to reflect the sharp drop in planted acreage in the June 30 Acreage Report. An expected cut to the projected corn yield is anticipated to absorb the higher planted acreage estimate. The following pre-report expectations are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.
Expectations for U.S. Carryover |
||
Corn – billion bushels |
|
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
Average est. |
1.420 |
2.260 |
Range |
1.315 – 1.502 |
1.951 – 2.652 |
USDA June |
1.452 |
2.257 |
|
||
Soybeans – million bushels |
|
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
Average est. |
232 |
199 |
Range |
205 – 270 |
128 – 280 |
USDA June |
230 |
350 |
|
|
|
Wheat – million bushels |
|
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
569 |
Range |
NA – NA |
533 – 607 |
USDA June |
598 |
562 |
|
|
|
Cotton – million bales |
|
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
3.47 |
Range |
NA |
3.00 – 4.00 |
USDA June |
3.20 |
3.50 |
Expectations for Global Carryover |
||
Corn – MMT |
||
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
Average est. |
298.13 |
314.33 |
Range |
297.00 – 299.50 |
310.42 – 321.42 |
USDA June |
297.55 |
313.98 |
|
||
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
Average est. |
101.02 |
121.00 |
Range |
99.00 – 102.00 |
116.70 – 125.43 |
USDA June |
101.32 |
123.34 |
|
||
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
Average est. |
266.38 |
269.49 |
Range |
265.00 – 268.00 |
265.00 – 272.00 |
USDA June |
266.66 |
270.71 |
|
||
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
Average est. |
NA |
92.82 |
Range |
NA |
92.29 – 93.07 |
USDA June |
92.89 |
92.79 |
USDA will also release its first all-wheat crop estimate on Wednesday, including the initial survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum. The following pre-report expectations are from Reuters.
Expectations for U.S. Wheat Production |
|
All wheat – billion bu. |
|
Average est. |
1.683 |
Range |
1.637 – 1.730 |
USDA June |
1.665 |
USDA 2022 |
1.650 |
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu. |
|
Average est. |
1.146 |
Range |
1.100 – 1.187 |
USDA June |
1.100 |
USDA 2022 |
1.104 |
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
532 |
Range |
498 – 555 |
USDA June |
525 |
USDA 2022 |
531 |
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
407 |
Range |
396 – 422 |
USDA June |
402 |
USDA 2022 |
337 |
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
207 |
Range |
195 – 215 |
USDA June |
209 |
USDA 2022 |
236 |
|
|
Other spring wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
477 |
Range |
436 – 510 |
USDA June |
NA |
USDA 2022 |
482 |
|
|
Durum wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
60 |
Range |
55 – 70 |
USDA June |
NA |
USDA 2022 |
64 |
|
Much Of Canada abnormally dry to moderate drought... In a stretch from the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans, a wide swath of Canada was contending with dryness, according to the latest report from the Canadian Drought Monitor. As of June 30, about 60% of the country was abnormally dry to being in moderate drought, with 76% of the farmland saddled with moisture stress.
Most of the Canadian Prairies had dry conditions of some sort, with a large part of southern Alberta in severe to extreme drought. The drought monitor pinpointed a second pocket of severe drought in Manitoba west of Winnipeg, otherwise the province was abnormally dry to moderate drought. “Overall, drought conditions continued to expand and increase in severity throughout the region,” the report noted of the Prairies. It said temperatures were three to five degrees Celsius above normal in the eastern half while the western half was one to two degrees above normal.
Some parts of Alberta saw drought conditions improve following a two-day rainstorm that brought flooding to the area west of Edmonton. Otherwise, the province continued to receive below normal precipitation.
The majority of Saskatchewan was abnormally dry with a large part of the province’s west rated as being in a moderate drought. There were also two pockets of normal conditions, one northeast of Saskatoon and the other south of Regina.
Is it time to repurpose CRP?... Dr. Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University via a FarmDoc Daily item writes: “A Carbon Capture CRP initially focused on grasslands may offer more potential to capture carbon than the much debated, currently unproven carbon markets for the 318 million acres of principal crops in the U.S.”
With the start of the new fiscal year on Oct. 1, there will be more land (9.2 million acres) in the Grasslands CRP, a working lands program, than in other CRP components, he said. The so-called Continuous CRP, which helps landowners install practices such as windbreaks and filter strips on small pieces of land, would be as big as the General CRP, at about 8.2 million acres apiece.
Zulauf’s suggestion: “This transformation, plus advances in GPS (Global Positioning Systems) and farm tillage as well as strong returns to producing crops since 2007, suggest it is time to merge General CRP and Continuous CRP into a Site Specific CRP,” said Zulauf. “Similar to Continuous CRP, Site Specific CRP would emphasize identification of sites in a field with the highest benefit-cost ratio for improving environmental quality while keeping the rest of the field in farm production.”
Carbon alliance launched... The American Carbon Alliance (ACA) has been launched in Urbandale, Iowa, with the aim of harnessing the potential of carbon capture technology to strengthen the rural communities and America’s agricultural economy. The bipartisan coalition comprises influential leaders including its CEO Tom Buis, former CEO of Growth Energy and President of the National Farmers Union, as well as former Minnesota Congressman Collin Peterson, and Iowa businessman, Nick Ryan.
ACA said it will function as an advocate for public policies that stimulate the transformation of agriculture and energy industries, enhancing national energy security. The coalition believes the application of carbon capture technology, coupled with biofuels utilization, offers potential opportunities for rural areas and gives the country a pathway to attain energy independence. The members argue that such advancements can provide a low carbon alternative to electric vehicles, supporting reducing carbon emissions.
As part of its mission, ACA will convene business leaders, energy producers, farmers, construction trade workers, corporations and residents who are in favor of America’s new energy future — linking modern agriculture with clean domestic energy. This new strategy is seen to encompass several domains including agriculture, energy, national security and prosperity for communities in both rural America and around the globe.