Evening Report | July 10, 2023
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Corn condition improves more than expected... As of Sunday, USDA rated 55% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent,” up four percentage points from last week and two points higher than traders expected. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” decreased one point to 14%.
|
This week |
Last week |
Year-ago |
Very poor |
4 |
4 |
3 |
Poor |
10 |
11 |
7 |
Fair |
31 |
34 |
26 |
Good |
45 |
43 |
52 |
Excellent |
10 |
8 |
12 |
USDA reported 22% of the corn crop was silking and 3% was in dough stage, both one point ahead of the respective five-year averages.
Soybean condition doesn’t improve as much as expected... USDA rated 51% of the soybean crop as “good” to “excellent,” a one-point increase from last week, though traders expected a two-point rise. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” held at 15%.
|
This week |
Last week |
Year-ago |
Very poor |
4 |
4 |
2 |
Poor |
11 |
11 |
7 |
Fair |
34 |
35 |
29 |
Good |
44 |
44 |
52 |
Excellent |
7 |
6 |
10 |
USDA reported 39% of the soybean crop was blooming and 10% was setting pods, four and three points ahead of the respective averages.
Cotton conditions decline... USDA’s “good” to “excellent” rating for the cotton crop held at 48%, though the portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased four points to 25%. The Texas crop was rated 33% in the top two categories and 40% in the bottom two.
|
This week |
Last week |
Year-ago |
Very poor |
9 |
7 |
13 |
Poor |
16 |
14 |
14 |
Fair |
27 |
31 |
34 |
Good |
41 |
41 |
34 |
Excellent |
7 |
7 |
5 |
USDA reported 55% of the cotton crop was squaring, equal to the five-year average. Cotton setting bolls stood at 17%, one point behind average for the date.
Spring wheat conditions continue to deteriorate... USDA rated 47% of the U.S. spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one point from last week. Traders expected a one-point increase. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased four points to 16%. The North Dakota crop was rated 42% “good” to “excellent” and 22% “poor” to “very poor.” South Dakota has the worst crop conditions with 29% rated in both the top two categories and the bottom two.
|
This week |
Last week |
Year-ago |
Very poor |
4 |
3 |
1 |
Poor |
12 |
9 |
4 |
Fair |
37 |
40 |
25 |
Good |
45 |
46 |
63 |
Excellent |
2 |
2 |
7 |
USDA reported 72% of the spring wheat crop was headed, five points ahead of average.
Winter wheat harvest continues to lag... USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 46% harvested as of Sunday, 13 percentage points behind average. HRW harvest stood at 93% in Texas (94% on average), 95% in Oklahoma (98%), 59% in Kansas (84%), 1% in Colorado (32%) and 12% in Nebraska (25%).
USDA increases FY 2023 raw cane sugar TRQ... USDA announced an increase in the fiscal year (FY) 2023 raw cane sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) of 125,000 metric tons raw value (MTRV). That’s on top of the initial FY 2023 TRQ that was set at 1,117,195 MTRV, the WTO minimum the U.S. committed to. The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) will allocate this increase among supplying countries and customs areas. “These actions are being taken after a determination that additional supplies of raw cane sugar are required in the U.S. market,” USDA said in a notice in the Federal Register. “USDA will closely monitor stocks, consumption, imports and all sugar market and program variables on an ongoing basis and may make further program adjustments during FY 2023 if needed.”
Report: India’s ethanol program will cap sugar exports... India will likely have a smaller role in the sugar export market going forward as its government-led ethanol program continues to expand, a report for Asia Biofuel Outlook produced by BMI said. The research firm says there is currently a rapid development of additional capacity to produce ethanol in India, where the biofuel is made mainly from sugarcane. As more ethanol plants start production, more of the country’s sugarcane crop will be used to make the fuel, limiting the amount of sugar that will be produced.
According to USDA, India’s ethanol blending has reached 11.5%, while the country’s government target is to reach 20% by 2025. The report said that although it is “doubtful” India will be able to achieve that level by 2025, the program will cap exports of feedstocks used in ethanol production, supporting global sugar prices.
U.S. beef industry challenged by a strong preference for chicken... The fear of competition from plant-based meat alternatives for the $85 billion U.S. beef industry proved to be misplaced as that segment holds only a small market share. The real competition comes from chicken, which overtook beef in per-person consumption in 1993, and the gap continues to widen.
Chicken’s affordability, three times cheaper than beef, and versatility give it an edge over beef. Chicken’s popularity has increased greatly due to its use in home cooking, processed foods and restaurants. The beef industry has struggled to rebrand and innovate.
David Maloni, a supply-chain consultant, suggested that reversing this declining trend would be challenging given its long-standing nature. The sector faces multiple issues including increasing feed costs, drought and competition, reducing profits and threatening more hardships with a cooling economy.
The preference for chicken is particularly apparent in fast food and takeout, which strongly influences teens’ and young adults’ eating habits. In 2022, chicken featured in four of the top 10 items ordered on Grubhub, while beef only appeared in cheeseburgers.
The chicken rage is significant within the nearly $1 trillion U.S. restaurant market. Chains like Chick fil A and Popeyes have thrived, even causing non-chicken chains to bolster their chicken strategies. In a Morning Consult poll, 41% of U.S. adults claimed to eat more chicken compared to 16% for beef, with chicken favored across all demographics.