Market Snapshot | June 28, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is 10 to 15 cents lower, with new-crop marking stronger losses.

  • Corn futures are extending lower for the fifth straight session on continued expectations for improved moisture prospects throughout the Corn Belt.
  • Rain through the weekend across the Midwest will be restricted, but some increase is expected next week that may bring at least some relief through most of the region, states World Weather Inc. The forecaster indicates today’s forecast may be a little too wet, but some relief is anticipated.
  • USDA reported a daily export sale of 170,706 MT to Mexico — 21,340 MT for 20222-23 and 149,366 MT for 2023-24.
  • Ethanol production was unchanged at an average of 1.052 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended June 23. That was 1,000 bpd more than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose 175,000 barrels to 22.979 million barrels and is the most since the week ended May 12.
  • December corn is trading around initial support of $5.45 3/4, with the 40-day moving average of $5.38 3/4 serving as the next area of support. The 20-day moving average of $5.60 1/4 is serving as resistance.

Soybeans are 27 to 45 cents lower, with old-crop posting heavier losses. July meal futures are more than $8.00 lower, while July soyoil is around 110 points lower.

  • The soy complex is under notable pressure amid rains and cooler temps through much of the Corn Belt.
  • Rain and further increases in soil moisture occurred in portions of the far northwestern Corn Belt Tuesday with most other areas dry, while crops benefitted from much cooler than normal temps in the Great Lakes region, according to World Weather.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures gained 3% overnight, rebounding from the previous session’s losses from strength in crude and rival edible oils. 
  • November soybeans are hovering above support at $12.54 1/4, while the 100-day moving average of $12.92 1/2 is serving as initial resistance.

SRW wheat is mostly around 20 cents lower, while HRW wheat is 22 to 23 cents lower. HRS wheat is 15 to 20 cents lower.

  • Wheat futures are pressing lower as global supply concerns ease amid a big increase in Canadian wheat acreage and Ukraine’s plan to continue grain exports despite a likely end to the Black Sea grain deal.
  • The probability of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal in July remains high, although talks continue, Russia RIA news agency reported. Russian officials have repeatedly said Moscow would end the deal after the current extension expires on July 17 if its demands aren’t met, though traders seem unphased as Ukraine has indicated it has a “Plan B” for exports.
  • Stats Canada reported Canadian farmers planted 26.9 million acres to wheat, including 19.5 million acres of spring wheat. That was down slightly from the 27.0 million acres intended to be planted, but higher than trade expectations of 26.5 million acres.
  • September SRW wheat has extended below the 100-day moving average of $6.95 3/4 and support at $6.82 1/4. Additional support lies at the 20-day moving average of $6.71 1/2, while resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $7.09.

Live cattle are slightly higher while feeders are posting moderate gains.

  • Live cattle are extending higher following Tuesday’s strong close.
  • Cash cattle are expected to trade lower again this week.
  • Choice boxed beef prices dropped another $3.81 on Tuesday to $329.23, while Select fell $1.24 to $298.43, taking the Choice/Select spread to $30.80. However, Choices boxes are still more than $60.00 above year-ago at this time and are record levels for the date. Movement rose to 147 loads on the day.
  • August live cattle have extended above initial resistance of $173.14, with $173.78 serving as next resistance. Initial support lies at the 20-day moving average of $171.90.  

Lean hogs are mixed, with summer-month contracts firmer and deferred futures lower.   

  • July lean hogs continue to edge higher amid continued support from firming cash fundamentals.
  • The CME lean hog index rose another 41 cents to $92.52 as of June 26.
  • The pork cutout value firmed 61 cents to $100.16 on Tuesday, the first time in triple digits since last October. Strength in the pork product market has been supported by seasonally declining supplies, though retailers also appear to be ramping up for more pork features after the Fourth of July holiday.
  • August lean hogs continue to find support at the 10-day moving average of $90.88, while initial resistance stands at $92.525.
 

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