Market Snapshot | June 23, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Livestock producers: Extend meal coverage... The sharp break in soymeal futures the last two days returned prices to what we consider value levels. We advise livestock producers to cover remaining June soymeal needs in the cash market. We also advise covering half of your needs for both July and August in the cash market.

Corn is 26 to 30 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are seeing followthrough profit-taking on improved rainfall chances for the Corn Belt and weak export data.
  • World Weather Inc. states hot temps may move into Kansas, Missouri and parts of Illinois during the weekend and again during the middle part of next week. Rainfall across the central Corn Belt will remain restricted over the next week, though spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible. Weather models currently favor increased rain chances the first week of July.
  • USDA reported old-crop corn export sales of 36,000 MT for week ended June 15, which were down 87% from the previous week and 74% form the four-week average. Net new-crop sales of 47,100 MT were also reported for the week. Traders expected sales to range from 0 to 600,000 MT for 2022-23 and 0 to 200,000 MT for 2023-24.
  • December corn has plunged below support at $6.13 3/4 and $6.06 3/4, though the 200-day moving average of $5.83 3/4 is serving up solid support. Initial resistance is around $6.20. 

Soybeans are 7 to 32 cents lower, with new-crop futures marking heavier losses. July meal futures are around $13.00 lower, while July soyoil is up about 120 points.

  • Soybeans have come well off their earlier lows on strengthening exports and strength in soyoil futures, though the market remains decidedly lower.
  • The GFS (American) weather model is trying to bring a tropical cyclone into the Gulf of Mexico during the second week of the outlook, which may or may not verify, but be assured that the feature will influence week two weather in many of the coming computer model runs, states World Weather. Confidence in a storm verifying is very low today.
  • Old-crop soybean export sales of 457,500 MT were reported for week ended June 15, down 4% from the previous week but up 98% from the four-week average. Net new-crop sales of 168,800 MT were also reported. Trades expected sales to range from 100,000 to 600,000 MT for 2022-23 and 0 to 300,000 MT for 2023-24.
  • July soybeans tested support at $14.72 3/4 for the second straight session but have turned from earlier lows. Thursday’s close of $15.00 1/2 is serving as resistance.

SRW and HRW wheat are mostly 10 to 12 cents lower, while HRS wheat is 3 to 5 cents lower.

  • Wheat futures are facing pressure for the first session in six, with selling in corn weighing on the complex.
  • USDA reported net wheat sales of 109,700 MT for 2023-24, which were near the low-end of the pre-report range of 100,000 and 400,000 MT.
  • The condition of soft wheat crops in France, the European Union’s biggest producer, declined for the fourth week in a row ahead of rains that broke a hot, dry spell, according to data from FranceAgriMer
  • July SRW wheat fell below support of $7.27 1/4, with next support lying at $7.15 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $7.37 1/4.

Live cattle are choppy, while feeders are surging higher amid weakness in grains.

  • Live cattle are trading a narrow range around unchanged this morning.
  • Cash cattle trade ranged from $2 to $5 lower across the five-state area so far this week. Despite lower prices, feedlots have moved quite a few cattle, knowing packers have a fresh supply of contract animals and a holiday-shortened slaughter schedule the first week of July.
  • Choice boxed beef prices rose 22 cents on Thursday to $334.47, while Select fell 45 cents to $303.80. Movement declined to 98 loads on the day.
  • USDA reported net beef sales of 13,300 MT for 2023, up 4% from the previous week, but down 14% from the four-week average.
  • USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon is expected to show the June 1 feedlot inventory at 96.6%, May placements at 101.7% and May marketings at 101.6% of year-ago levels.
  • August live cattle are trading mostly between the 20- and 10-day moving average of $170.95 and $171.46, respectively, with additional support at $169.80.  

Lean hogs are higher at midsession.  

  • July lean hogs are gaining back a portion of Thursday’s losses, indicating the session was largely a function of profit-taking.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 85 cents as of June 21 to $90.47.
  • The pork cutout value rose 42 cents on Thursday to $96.50, led higher by an over $15 increase in primal ribs.
  • USDA reported net pork sales of 28.700 MT for 2023, up 7% from the previous week and 10% above the four-week average.
  • USDA’s Cold Storage Report this afternoon will detail meat stocks at the end of May. The five-year average is a 25.7 million-lb. drop in pork stocks during the month.
  • August lean hogs have dropped below the 10-day moving average of $89.675 before rebounding. Additional support is at $88.19. Initial resistance stands at $92.79.

 

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