Market Snapshot | June 20, 2023

Corn is mostly around a penny higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are choppy as traders dissect near-term weather forecasts.
• Midwest precip will be restricted for another week to 10 days, although totally dry weather is not expected for all crop areas, according to World Weather Inc. The forecaster notes net drying is expected, despite some showers, but temps won’t be excessively hot.
• Persistently dry weather and forecasts for ongoing drought in the Corn Belt led crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier to cut his corn yield by 1 bu. to 177 bu. per acre. He now projects the corn crop at 14.77 billion bu.
• Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 130 MMT, noting recent rains in Brazil will help later developing safrinha corn.
• July corn gapped higher overnight, and has extended above resistance at $6.06 1/4, with $6.14 3/4 serving as the next area of resistance. Initial support lies at $5.89 1/4.

July soybeans are posting gains of around 12 cents while new-crop is mixed. July meal futures are around $1.00 higher. July soyoil is marginally lower.

• The soy complex has a mixed tone amid back-and-forth trade at midmorning.
• Though estimating soybean yields the third week of June is a “tricky proposition,” according to Cordonnier, he trimmed his U.S. soybean crop estimate by 0.5 bu. per acre, stating it’s time to be a little more cautious concerning the U.S. soybean crop.
• Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 21 MMT, citing especially disappointing double crop yields. He left his Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 155 MMT.
• China’s soybean imports from Brazil soared 40% in May, compared to the same period a year-ago, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. After initial delays to the Brazilian harvest, cargoes have surged into Chinese ports, pushing total arrivals last month to 12 MMT, the largest volume ever in a single month.
• July soybeans gapped higher overnight and have extended as high as $14.89 1/4, clearing resistance at $14.81 1/4, while additional resistance stands around $14.95 3/4. Initial support lies at $14.53 1/2. 

SRW wheat is around 3 cents higher, while HRW is 3 to 5 cents lower. HRS wheat is 7 to 8 cents lower.

• SRW wheat has turned mildly higher after trading lower overnight.
• Russia expects the Black Sea grain deal to end on July 18, but says there could be fresh talks ahead of that deadline, Russian state news agency RIA reported.
• Algeria’s state grains agency OIAC is believed to have bought around 630,000 MT of milling wheat largely expected to be sourced from Russia in an international tender on Monday.
• July SRW wheat has extended above the 100-day moving average of $6.87 3/4, with additional resistance at $7.04 1/2. Initial support lies around $6.80 1/4.

Live cattle are modestly lower, while feeders are posting slightly stronger losses.

• Live cattle are lower as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop.
• Cash cattle prices averaged $184.92 last week, down $3.83 from the previous week and the first decline in a month and a half. Packers will try to buy cattle at cheaper prices again this week, while feedlots will be hesitant to move cattle at lower prices, given they are current on marketings.
• Wholesale beef prices fell on Monday, with a $2.95 drop in Choice, while Select fell 19 cents. Movement was solid at 101 loads.
• August live cattle are consolidating in a sideways pattern, with $170.93 serving as initial support, while resistance stands at $172.41.

Lean hogs are notably higher at midsession.  

• July lean hogs are posting notable gains amid continued strength in the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index continues its methodical seasonal climb, rising another 77 cents to $87.64 as of June 15.
• The pork cutout value rose $3.73 on Monday, with strong gains in all cuts. At $96.06, the pork cutout is at its highest level since mid-November of last year.
• August lean hogs gapped higher at the open and have reached as high as $92.95, the highest level since May 3. Initial support lies at Friday’s close of $90.675.