Market Snapshot | May 23, 2023

Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are marking mild gains, with rising crude oil and wheat futures providing support.
• Corn planting remains ahead of average at 81% completed, up from the five-year average of 75%. Of the top 12 corn producing states, only Kansas (71% planted vs. a75% average) and North Dakota (32% vs. 50%) were behind the five-year average planting pace.
• The Midwest will experience net drying over the next 10 days, while frequent rains will fall across the Central and Southern Plains into next week, according to World Weather Inc. The forecaster indicates areas of the Northern Plains could also experience active rainfall.
• July corn pushed above the 10-day moving average of $5.75 1/4, marking an intraday high just below resistance of $5.79 3/4 before pulling back to near unchanged. Initial support remains at $5.57 1/2.

Soybeans are 13 to 23 cents lower, while July meal futures are around $3.00 lower. July soyoil is more than 100 points lower.

• Soybean futures are pressing lower after posting the largest gains since September in the previous session.
• Soybean planting continues at a rapid pace at 66% completed, ahead of the five-year average of 52%. Of the top 13 soybean producing states, plantings only lagged the average pace in Minnesota (53% vs. 57% average) and North Dakota (20% vs. 33%). Emergence was reported at 46%, well ahead of the five-year average of 24%.
• Crop Consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier trimmed his Argentine soybean crop estimate 1 MMT to 22 MMT, noting poor yields and acreage abandonment, estimated at around 2 million hectares. Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 155 MMT.
• July soybeans are trading inside Monday’s range with initial support remaining at $13.15 3/4, while resistance stands at $13.55 1/4.

SRW wheat is mostly 10 to 11 cents higher, while HRW wheat is 12 to 14 cents higher. HRS wheat is marking 15- to 16-cent gains.

• Wheat has rallied from the overnight low as global supply concerns increase amid logistical hurdles around the Black Sea grain deal.
• The U.S. has recently purchased five cargoes of wheat from Poland and two from Germany, each around 30,000 MT, for shipment between May and August, Reuters reported, citing European trade sources.
• The winter wheat rating improved to 31% “good” to “excellent”, up from 29% last week, while 61% of the crop was headed compared to the 40% average. The spring wheat crop was 64% planted versus the average of 73%, while 32% emerged compared to the average of 40%.
• The Ukrainian port of Pivdennyl has halted operations because Russia is not allowing ships to enter it, in effect cutting it out of the Black Sea grain deal, a Ukrainian official said earlier today.
• July SRW wheat has rebounded from earlier lows and is currently working above resistance at $6.14 1/2, with $6.22 3/4 serving as the next area of resistance.

Live cattle and feeders are modestly lower.

• Live cattle are trading lower as traders are increasingly cautious following the news of the atypical BSE case announced by USDA late Friday, though it shouldn’t have trade impacts.
• Last week’s average cash cattle trade rose $1.02 from the previous week to $175.15. Next week is a shortened slaughter schedule due to Memorial Day, so packers won’t need as many cattle. Fresh supplies at the flip of the calendar will likely find packers trying to buy cash cattle at lower prices. Though feedlots are likely to be hesitant sellers at lower prices.
• Choice boxed beef prices rose $2.80 on Monday to $303.90, while Select fell 51 cents to $283.43, increasing the Choice/Select spread to $20.47. Movement was light at 95 loads.
• June live cattle are consolidating sideways, mostly between resistance at $166.22 and the 10-day moving average around $164.44.

Lean hogs are posting sharp losses at midsession.

• Lean hogs are lower for the third straight session, despite the downside being overdone and firming cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 44 cents to $79.57 as of May 19.
• The pork cutout value rose 39 cents to $84.77, despite a $4 drop in hams. Movement totaled 288.2 loads for the day.
• June lean hogs have fallen below support near $81.06 and $80.29, pressing farther into oversold territory. Additional support lies around $78.91, while initial resistance is near $82.44.