Market Snapshot | May 1, 2023

Corn futures are 2 to 7 cents lower at midmorning.

Corn futures are lower as outside markets cast a shadow over commodities.
USDA is expected to report total corn-for-ethanol production for March at 441.6 million bu., which would be a 41.5 million bu. 10.4% increase from February, but 4.2% below year-ago.
World Weather Inc. notes the outlook is wetter Thursday through May 12 than what was advertised last week, and planting will be slower to advance during the period, with good planting progress expected during the next several days.
USDA reported corn export inspections of 1.518 MMT (59.8 million bu.) in week ended April 27, topping the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.35 MMT. Inspections rose 579,361 MT from the previous week.
July corn is trading inside Friday’s range, with $5.91 serving as initial resistance, while support is around $5.75 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly a penny to 3 cents higher, while July meal futures are around $1.00 higher. July soyoil is around 30 points lower.

Soybeans are marking mild gains despite a continued risk-off sentiment.
USDA is expected to report March soybean crush of 197.2 million bu. this afternoon, which would be a record for the month and the second highest total ever for any month.
Soybean export inspections in week ended April 27 were 401,976 MT (14.8 million bu.), near the middle of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 700,000 MT. Inspections rose 24,248 MT from the previous week.
July soybeans are hovering mostly around Friday’s close of $14.19 1/2. Initial support lies at $14.13, while resistance stands at $14.29 1/2.

SRW wheat is mostly 14 to 16 cents lower, while HRW is 17 to 19 cents lower. HRS wheat is mostly 11 to 12 cents lower.

SRW futures are facing pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of additional rains that should improve winter wheat conditions.
Ukraine’s grain exports totaled 3.62 MMT in April 2023, compared with 923,000 MT shipped in April 2022 when all Ukrainian Black Sea ports were blocked due to the Russian invasion, according to Ukrainian farm ministry data.
More beneficial rain will occur in the Plains this week, though rain in the southwest will not be as great as last week, but any rain will be helpful for the winter wheat crop. Much of the rain in the southwest will occur Tuesday and will then shift more to the east and north, according to World Weather Inc.
USDA reported wheat export inspections of 358,273 MT (13.2 million bu.) in week ended April 27, near the top-end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT. Inspections were down 5,553 MT from the previous week.
July SRW wheat has fallen as low as $6.16 3/4, marking an intraday low just below support of $6.17 1/2. Initial resistance is around $6.40 1/4.

Live cattle are lower, while feeders are marking mild gains in most contracts.

Live cattle are posting moderate losses as traders remain cautious ahead of what’s expected to be extended cash cattle negotiations.
The availability of fresh contract supplies for packers with the flip of the calendar will likely cause cash cattle negotiations to drag late into the week. Traders will likely remain cautious in increasing long futures positions as a result.
Choice boxed beef boxes rose 37 cents on Friday to $311.44, while Select fell 75 cents to $288.34, taking the Choice/Select spread to $23.10. Movement was light at 87 loads.
June live cattle have edged as low as $164.475, just above initial support at $164.425. Initial resistance stands at $165.725.

Lean hogs are facing heavy selling despite a strong finish last week and improving cash fundamentals.
The CME lean hog index firmed 20 cents to $71.49 as of April 27, marking the third increase in the last four days. However, the net gain totaled 31 cents over the period. May hog futures finished last Friday $8.16 above today’s cash quote, while the June contract holds around $18.30 premium to the cash index. Traders are removing some of those premiums this morning.
The pork cutout value rose $2.51 to $81.32 on Friday, though movement slowed to 193 loads.
June lean hogs have fell below support near $90.27, with further support around $88.83. The 40-day moving average of $91.71 is serving as initial resistance.

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