Market Snapshot | April 21, 2023

Corn futures are 5 to 12 cents lower at midmorning.

Corn futures are extending lower for the third straight session, taking spillover weakness from the soy complex, with additional pressure stemming from a notable reduction in U.S. exports to China on the year.
China imported 494,903 MT of U.S. corn in March, a 52% drop on the year, while Brazil volumes reached 68,605 MT. Shipments from Ukraine totaled 909,345 MT, down 33% from March 2022.
World Weather Inc. predicts cool weekend temperatures in the Midwest, which will carry into next week along with periodic rainfall, slowing planting progress. The forecaster notes the snowstorm in the upper Midwest and Red River Basin will end by early Saturday, with the next precip event expected late next week.
May corn has dropped below the 10-day moving average of $6.62 3/4 and carved a session low just below support at $6.58 3/4. Additional support lies at the 100-day moving average of $6.57, while resistance stands at $6.66 1/4.

Soybeans are 7 to 15 cents lower, while May meal futures are around $5.00 lower. May soyoil is about 40 points lower.

Soybeans are falling under continued pressure amid a record Brazilian crop and discounts to U.S. supplies.
Brazilian soybean port prices plunged to around a $2.00 discount for May delivery as exporters tried to find buyers for the record crop given tepid Chinese demand.
China’s soybean imports from the U.S. rose 43% in March as delays in harvesting in Brazil prompted buyers to seek more U.S. beans. The world’s top buyer imported 4.83 MMT from the U.S., compared to 3.37 MMT a year earlier.
May soybeans have extended below initial support of $14.88 1/2, with next support lying at $14.79 1/2. The 100-day moving average of $14.98 1/2 is serving resistance.

SRW wheat is mostly 4 to 6 cents lower, while HRW is 7 to 9 cents lower. HRS wheat is around 5 to 6 cents lower.

HRW wheat is leading the complex lower amid decent moisture prospects in the Plains.
U.S. HRW wheat areas will have three opportunities for rain during the next ten days, with nearly all areas receiving rain, though follow-up rains will be needed in many areas, especially in the southwest, according to World Weather.
Ukraine’s prospects of unblocking grain shipments to eastern Europe improved today as Romania opted against a unilateral ban on food imports, but there was no progress on extending a deal on Black Sea exports.
Ukrainian farms had sown the first million hectares of spring grains by April 21, according to its agriculture ministry. Reduced sowing is expected due Russia’s invasion and occupation of a significant part of the country.
May SRW wheat is hovering above initial support $6.61 1/4, with additional support at $6.54 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $6.73.

Live cattle and feeders are marking moderate losses.

Live cattle are posting mostly moderate losses ahead of USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon.
Traders expect April 1 feedlot inventory to be down 5.0% from year-ago, to 11.5 million head, the lowest for date since 2017. March placements are expected to have dropped 5.2%, with marketings down 0.9%
The slump in futures this week pulled cash prices down. Although feedlots are remarkably current, they moved cattle at steady to $2 lower compared with last week, suggesting the bulk of the cattle traded were hedged. A few feedlots may hold out in hopes of higher prices following this afternoon’s report.
Choice boxed beef rose $1.07 on Thursday to $306.99 while Select dropped $2.72 to $288.74, taking the Choice/Select spread to $18.25.
June live cattle are trading within the upper half of the previous session, mostly below the 10-day moving of $164.26. Initial support lies at $162.98.

Lean hogs are working higher, though the path of least resistance is seemingly down as traders remain cautious amid continued weakness in the cash index.
The CME lean hog index fell another 16 cents to $71.41 as of April 19, which is a new low for the year. Traders have aggressively removed premium from May hog futures and summer-month contracts this week amid prolonged weakness in the cash index.
The pork cutout value rose $1.34 to $78.15, led by an over $7 gain in bellies. Movement totaled 287.2 loads. While wholesale pork is cheap relative to beef, packers are struggling to move enough pork to keep up with supplies.
June lean hogs traded as low as $84.625, just above support near $84.57, but have since turned higher, testing resistance at $85.67. Additional resistance is at $86.26.

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