Market Snapshot | March 16, 2023

Nearby corn futures are higher amid strengthening exports with daily purchases occurring over the past three days.
USDA reported a daily export sale of 641,000 MT of corn for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year. Daily sales to China over the past three days total 1.920 MMT.
USDA reported weekly corn sales of 1.236 MMT for week ended March 9, which was down 13% from the previous week, but up 28% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the top-end of the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
The International Grains Council forecast that global corn production would rise 1.202 billion metric tons in the 2023-24 season, up from 1.15 BMT this year.
May corn has pushed above initial resistance of $6.30 1/2, with further resistance standing at $6.34 1/2. Initial support lies at $6.20 3/4.

Soybeans are 5 to 8 cents lower, while May meal futures are around $4.00 lower. May soyoil is more than 60 points higher.

Soybeans are extending their recent price weakness as economic uncertainties loom.
USDA reported soybean sales of 665,000 MT for week ended March 9, which was up from net reductions the previous week. Net sales were near the top end of the expected pre-report range from 50,000 to 700,000 MT.
Argentina’s soybean crushing plants are operating at the lowest capacity in history due to the impact of a severe drought, according to the country’s top grains processing chamber. Argentine soy crush plants may have to import soybeans from Brazil and Paraguay, though not more than 8 MMT.
World Weather Inc. notes Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias will see frequent rain and few opportunities for fieldwork through at least March 25 with heavy rain and some possible flooding in Mato Grosso, though March 26-30 should feature a decline in shower activity.
Crops across Asia are forecast to face hot, dry weather, with meteorologists expecting the El Nino weather pattern to develop in the second half of the year, threatening supplies and heightening concerns over food inflation.
May soybeans have breached support at $14.80 1/2, with additional support lying at $14.69 3/4. Initial resistance remains at $14.99 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 8 to 11 cents lower, while spring wheat is posting 9- to 10-cent losses.

Winter wheat futures are lower as traders continue to weigh economic concerns and the extension of the Black Sea grain deal, due to expire on Saturday.
Negotiations around the extension of the Black Sea grain deal continue, with UN spokesman Stehpane Dujarric noting, “meaningful progress has been made but it is true that some obstacles remain, notably with regard to payment systems.”
USDA reported wheat export sales of 336,700 MT for week ended March 9, which was up 26% from the previous week and 23% from the four-week average. Sales were near the top end of the expected range from 75,000 to 500,000 MT.
U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas continue in the midst of the most serious drought in North America and not much precipitation is expected for a while, states World Weather.
SRW wheat futures are trading mostly between initial support of $6.95 and initial resistance at $7.08 1/4.

Live cattle are slightly higher while feeders are notching strong gains.

Nearby live cattle are slightly higher after experiencing a notable correction over the past seven sessions as funds liquidated positions on intensifying macroeconomic fears.
The sharp break in cattle futures on Wednesday amid macroeconomic concerns pulled the cash market lower, with initial trade down $1 to $2, which was lower than originally expected.
Choice boxed beef dropped $1.64 on Wednesday to $284.27 while Select fell $1.94 to $272.63, taking the Choice/Select spread to $11.64.
USDA reported net beef sales of 17,700 MT for 2023, up notably from the previous week and 24% above the four-week average.
April live cattle are trading narrowly within the lower range of the previous session. Initial support lies at the 100-day moving average around $161.19, while initial resistance is at $162.60.

Hog futures are marking heavy losses at midmorning.

April lean hogs are extending losses in a macroeconomic-driven selloff along with fundamental weakness in the wholesale pork market.
Pork cutout value plunged $1.99 on Wednesday to $86.38, led by over a $6 drop in hams. Movement slowed to 244.4 loads despite the price drop.
The CME lean hog index is up 4 cents to $79.93 as of March 14.
USDA reported net pork sales of 35,600 MT for 2023, up 62% from the previous week, but down 5% from the four-week average. China was the third largest buyer at 5,000 MT, behind Mexico (9,900 MT) and Japan (6,400 MT).
April lean hogs gapped lower at the open, and has breached support near $83.08 and $82.42, with additional support around $81.26.

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