Market Snapshot | March 13, 2023

Corn futures are mostly unchanged to a penny lower.

• Corn futures are trading slightly lower despite notable gains in SRW wheat futures and a weaker U.S. dollar.
• Brazil’s safrinha planting efforts in the center-south of Brazil reached a completion rate of 82% as of Thursday, according to AgRural, a 12% increase on the week, but still behind last year’s pace of 94% by the same time. Significant delays were noted in Mato Grosso do Sul.
• World Weather Inc. notes Argentina will experience very warm to hot temperatures and little to no rain early this week, with showers late this week into the weekend will offer some relief from dryness and heat stress, though much more rain will be needed to fully restore soil moisture.
• USDA reported weekly export inspections of 999,388 MT for week ended March 9, which was up 66,076 MT from the previous week and near the top end of pre-report expectations between 500,000 and 1.225 MT.
• May corn is pivoting around the previous session’s close, with initial resistance at $6.21 3/4 and initial support at $6.09 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 6 to 10 cents weaker, while May meal futures are over $3.50 lower. May soyoil is down marginally.

• Soybeans are lower for a second straight session as harvest advances in Brazil and weekly export inspections proved tepid.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest reached an estimated 53% harvested as of Thursday, according to AgRural. Harvest efforts rose 10% on the week, but still lag last year’s pace of 64% at the same time last year.
• Paraguay and much of Brazil will receive enough rain during the next two weeks to slow fieldwork while maintaining or improving conditions for crop development with a few exceptions in the northeast and far south.
• USDA reported weekly export inspections of 618,803 MT for week ended March 9, which was up 66,415 MT from the previous week. Inspections were in the middle of the expected range of 300,000 and 950,000 MT.
• May soybeans have traded as low as $14.97 1/4, below initial support of $14.98 1/4, additional support lies at $14.89 1/4. Initial resistance stands at the 40-day moving average of $15.16 1/2.
   

SRW wheat futures are 11 to 13 cents higher, while HRW is up 9 to 10 cents. Spring wheat is 12 to 15 cents higher.

• Winter wheat futures are posting moderate gains amid a weaker dollar and uncertainty around the extension of the Black Sea grain deal.
• Negotiations began today between UN officials and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin on a possible extension of the Black Sea grain deal, which is set to expire March 18.
• USDA reported weekly export inspections of 249,017 MT for week ended March 9, which was down 92,070 MT from the previous week and below the expected range of 250,000 and 500,000 MT.
• SRW wheat has reached as high as $6.90 3/4, above initial resistance of $6.88. Initial support lies at $6.65 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are surging lower at midmorning.

• Live cattle are extending last week’s heavy losses as traders remain cautious awaiting cash cattle trade to develop and USDA’s Cattle of Feed Report on Friday.
• Last week’s cash trade wasn’t as strong as hoped, April live cattle futures finished Friday at $164.275, down from the previous week’s average cash price, signaling traders remain cautious.
• Futures buyer interest is expected to remain light until cash trade develops, which could be after USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon.  
• April live cattle are trading are trading narrowly between initial support of $162.89, and the 40-day moving average of $163.47.

Hog futures are posting moderate to heavy losses.

• April lean hogs are experiencing corrective selling after posting solid gains over the past four sessions.
• While the cash index continues to rise, the slow pace is limiting traders’ willingness to build too much premium into nearby futures.
• April lean hog futures finished last week nearly $8 above today’s cash index quote.
• The pork cutout value dropped 59 cents on Friday and movement slowed to 255.5 loads on the day.
• April lean hogs are trading within the previous session’s range, initial support lies at $85.80 while initial resistance is at last Friday’s high of $87.50.