Market Snapshot | February 27, 2023

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Corn futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents lower at midmorning. 

  • Corn futures are extending last week’s losses despite a weaker U.S. dollar.
  • World Weather Inc. notes much of Argentina was warm to hot and dry and saw rising levels of crop stress during the weekend with light rain noted in many northern and a few other locations while significant rain was localized to several small areas.
  • Brazil’s safrinha corn planting advanced 15 percentage points during week ended Feb. 23 to 55%, which trailed last year’s pace of 63%.
  • USDA reported 572,622 MT (22.5 million bu.) of corn inspected for export in week ended Feb. 23, which was down 51,173 MT from the previous week, but within the expected range of 375,000 to 750,000 MT.
  • March corn fell as low as $6.44 3/4, where initial support lies. Initial resistance stands at $6.58 1/4.

Soybeans are 6 to 9 cents lower, while March meal futures are around $2.50 higher. March soyoil is about 100 points lower.

  • Soybeans are edging lower for the fourth consecutive session, erasing modest overnight corrective gains as harvest advances in Brazil.
  • AgRural reported soybean harvest in Brazil advanced to 33% through the week ended Feb. 23, an 8% increase on the week as rains hindered progress. Harvest remains well below last year’s pace of 43% during the same period.
  • Fieldwork in Brazil will continue to advance around the showers and thunderstorms, but delays to soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting will extend deeper into March which could cause safrinha yields to decline, according to World Weather.
  • USDA reported 690,984 MT (25.4 million bu.) of soybeans inspected for export in week ended Feb. 23, which was down 892,909 MT from last week and below the expected range between 850,000 MT and 1.7 MMT.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures reversed early losses on Monday, lifted by robust exports, weaker ringgit and weather concerns.
  • March soybeans have traded as low as $15.20, around where initial support lies. Initial resistance $15.34.

Winter wheat futures are 9 to 17 cents lower, while spring wheat is mostly 7 to 9 cents lower.

  • SRW wheat futures are under continued pressure as improved U.S. weather and expectations of an extension of the Black Sea grain deal pushed prices lower.
  • Rain in central and eastern portions of the U.S. hard red winter wheat region overnight and today will benefit some of the crops in the region, though precip in March is expected to be erratic. Cooler biased temperatures will help conserve soil moisture, states World Weather.
  • Ukraine’s winter grain crops have made it through the 2022-23 cold season safely, according to state weather forecasters. The country has sharply reduced 2023 winter wheat plantings to 3.8 million hectares, down from more than 6 million in 2022, due to the Russian invasion.
  • USDA reported wheat export inspections of 591,725 (21.7 million bu.) in week ended Feb. 23, which was 217,298 MT above the previous week and above the pre-report range of 250,000 to 500,000 MT.
  • March SRW wheat has traded as low as $6.96 1/4, above initial support of $6.93 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $7.32.

Live cattle are moderately higher while feeders are posting strong gains.

  • Live cattle are mostly firmer following Friday’s bullish Cattle on Feed Report and Cold Storage data.
  • Feeder cattle are supported by the weakness in corn.
  • Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed cattle on feed at 95.9%, placements at 96.4% and marketings at 104.2% of year-ago levels, indicating a continued contraction in feedlot supplies and available calves for placement.
  • USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed beef stocks at the end of January totaled 532.7 million lbs., down 11.2 million lbs. (2.6%) in December, while the five-year average was a 7.7 million-lb. increase in beef stocks during the month.
  • April live cattle are trading narrowly between initial support of $164.58 and initial resistance $165.76.

Hog futures are notably lower at midsession.

  • April lean hog futures are sinking following negative Cold Storage data on Friday and persisting futures premiums to the cash index. 
  • Friday’s Cold Storage Report showed pork stocks climbed slightly more than average during January, with pork stocks totaling 517.7 million, a 61.3 million-lb. (13.4%) increase from December. The five-year average is a 54.6 million-lb. increase during the month.
  • Spring and summer-month lean hog futures still hold slightly larger-than-normal premiums to the cash index, likely limiting buyer interest.
  • April lean hogs dipped below the 20-day moving average around $85.51. Initial support lies at $84.71, while initial resistance stands at $86.99.
 

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