Market Snapshot | February 23, 2023

Corn futures are 2 to 4 cents lower midmorning.

• Corn futures are trading lower despite supportive outside markets as crude oil futures rally.
• Brazil will see fieldwork advance around showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks, but delays to soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting will extend into March, according to World Weather Inc. That could cause yields to decline as yields are typically greatest if the crop is planted in February.
• Based on the January WASDE, USDA projects 91.0 million acres of corn, with 83.1 million harvested acres. At a yield of 181.5 bu. per acre, production would be 15.085 billion bushels.
• USDA’s weekly export sales report for week ended Feb. 16 will be delayed until Friday due to the government holiday on Monday.
• March corn has traded as low as $6.69 3/4, with initial support at $6.68 1/2. Initial resistance stands at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $6.77 1/2 and $6.78 1/2, respectively.
• Soybeans are 4 to 8 cents lower, while March meal futures are around $1.00 lower. March soyoil is about 30 points lower.
• Soybeans are lower for the second straight session on further corrective selling on weakening technicals.
• A restricted rainfall pattern will occur in Argentina through most of the next two weeks with stress to crops likely to increase in many areas as the remaining soil moisture is lost to evaporation, while fieldwork should advance in much of the country, states World Weather.
• USDA’s initial 2023-24 projections call for 87.5 million soybean acres, with 87.6 million harvested acres. The national average yield is projected at 52.0 bu. per acre, resulting in a crop of 4.510 billion bushels.
• Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher overnight after hitting a seven-week peak, supported by stronger U.S. soyoil and crude prices.
• March soybeans have dipped as low as $15.34, just abobve initial support at $15.33 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $15.49 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are around 5 cents higher, while HRW is 2 to 6 cents lower. Spring wheat is mostly a penny higher.

• SRW wheat futures are trading moderately higher on bargain buying and looming questions around the future of global supply from the Black Sea region.
• Black Sea grain traders are increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a long-term renewal or expansion of the deal that has enabled Ukraine to export grains from three major ports as the war in Russia continues.
• USDA projects 2023 wheat acreage at 49.5 million, with 38.4 million harvested acres. The projected national average yield is 49.2 bu. per acre, which would produce a 1.887-billion-bu. crop.
• China will auction an additional 140,000 MT of state-owned wheat reserves on March 1.
• Egypt purchased 240,000 MT of Russian wheat, while Taiwan tendered to buy 48,975 MT of U.S. milling wheat.
• March SRW are trading within initial support at $7.28 1/2 and initial resistance near $7.49 1/2.

Live cattle are narrowly mixed while feeders surge higher.

• Live cattle are choppy as traders wait on cash cattle trade to develop and position themselves before Friday’s Cattle of Feed Report.
• Wholesale beef prices continued to climb, with an additional 71 cent jump in Choice on Wednesday to $278.81, marking the highest February price ever for Choice beef. Select rose another $2.80 to $273.64, taking the Choice/Select spread to $14.27.
• USDA projects beef production at an estimated 26.5 billion lbs., a 6% drop from 2022. Exports are projected at 3.09 billion lbs., a 12.6% decrease from last year.
• April live cattle pushed to a new contract high at $166.10 before pulling back from that level.

Hog futures are being led lower by the nearby April contract.

• April lean hog futures are lower despite a firming cash market.
• The CME lean hog index is up 77 cents, the largest daily gain during the current rally from the January low. The April contract still holds around a $8.30 premium to today’s cash quote (as of Feb. 21), which is curbing buyer interest.
• USDA projects pork production at 27.4 billion lbs., up 2% from last year, with exports projected up 0.2% to 3.65 billion lbs.
• April lean hogs have edged below initial support at $85.71 for the second straight session. Initial resistance is at $87.86.