Market Snapshot | February 16, 2023

Corn futures are fractionally to a penny lower at midmorning.

Corn futures are facing mild pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, despite notable steady weekly export sales.
USDA reported export sales of 1.025 MMT in week ended Feb. 9, which was a 12% decrease from the previous week, but up 15% from the previous 4-week average. Sales were with the range of estimates from 600,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for 2022-23 global corn production by 8 MMT to 1.153 billion MT, driven mainly by downward revisions for the U.S. and Argentina.
Argentina’s crop moisture situation remains poor and production potential will decline until a more generalized soaking of rain evolves, which isn’t likely through the first days in March, according to World Weather Inc.
March corn is trading a narrow range between the 10- and 20- day moving averages near $6.77 3/4 and the 100-day moving average of $6.73 1/2.

Soybeans are narrowly mixed. March meal futures around $1.00 lower and March soyoil about 50 points higher.

Soybeans have turned mixed after trading slightly firmer at the start of daytime trade.
USDA reported a daily soybean export sale of 128,000 MT for delivery to “unknown destinations” in the 2022-23 marketing year.
AgRural cut its Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 150.9 MMT, down from the previous forecast of 152.9 MMT, citing severe drought in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. The updated estimate continues to suggest a record crop.
Brazil rainfall will continue in most of the nation over the next couple of weeks, slowing soybean harvest and safrinha corn plantings, according to World Weather.
USDA reported export sales of 512,800 MT for week ended Feb., which was up 37% from the previous week but down 35% from the previous 4-week average. Sales were near the lower end of the expected range from 400,000 to 800,000 MT.
March soybeans are narrowly trading within the previous session’s range, with initial support at the 20-day moving average of $15.21 1/2. Initial resistance is at $15.36 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower, while HRW is 2 to 3 cents higher. Spring wheat is 3 to 4 cents higher.

Winter wheat futures are mixed with SRW lower from outside market pressure and weak export sales, though HRW and spring wheat are each marking mild gains.
World Weather Inc. notes Wednesday’s snowfall in the Central U.S. Plains varied from 2 to 7 inches, which will be benefit wheat when temperatures turn warmer and melting occurs.
USDA reported export sales of 209,800 MT for week ended Feb. 9, which was a 60% increase from the previous week, but 32% lower than the 4-week average. Sales were near the low end of expectations ranging from 150,000 to 450,000 MT.
March SRW futures are pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $7.67 3/4. Initial support lies at $7.57 1/2, with resistance at $7.79 1/2.

Live and feeder cattle futures are lower at midsession.

Live cattle are posting losses as traders wait on cash cattle trade to develop.
Cash cattle trade has been light thus far, with sales reported in the $159 to $161 range. Packers remain hopeful of securing purchases at steady/weaker prices, though feedlots continue to expect firmer prices.
Wholesale beef prices continue to surge higher, with Choice up $3.61 to $275.67 on Wednesday and a $2.41 jump in Select, taking the Choice/Select spread to $14.48. Increasing boxed beef prices have kept packer margins in the black despite the recent rise in cash cattle prices.
Net beef export sales totaled 28,100 MT for 2023, up 72% from the previous week and 34% above the 4-week average. Japan (8,600 MT), South Korea (6,800 MT) and China (6,100 MT) were the top buyers.
April live cattle are trading within the upper range of the previous session, between initial resistance around $162.93 and initial support of $162.03.

Hog futures are posting moderate losses at midsession.

April lean hog futures are lower on weaker technicals as the contract maintains a steady premium over the cash index.
The CME lean hog index firmed an additional 44 cents to $75.62 as of Feb. 14, marking the tenth straight daily gain, with 14 of the last 16 days being higher.
April lean hogs still hold around a $10 premium to today’s cash quote.
The pork cutout value fell 94 cents Wednesday but is holding above the $80.00 mark, a level packers were unable to sustain last week.
Net pork export sales totaled 45,000 MT for 2023, which was o 56% from the previous week and 30% above the 4-week average. Mexico was the top buyer at 18,800 MT, while China purchased 4,100 MT of U.S. pork during the week.
April lean hogs have traded below the 10- and 20-day moving averages. Initial support lies near $85.07, while initial resistance is at $87.28.

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