Market Snapshot | November 18, 2022

( )

Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midsession.

  • Corn futures are poised for a firm gain for the week, boosted by technical buying following Thursday’s higher close. The market’s strength despite the extension of the Ukraine export deal has also encouraged buyers.
  • A senior United Nations official welcomed the 120-day extension of the deal allowing Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports but hopes the next deal will extend beyond that time frame. The official said there was still work to be done, with around 300,000 MT of fertilizer blocked at Russian ports.
  • The two largest rail worker unions are expected to conclude voting this weekend on a deal brokered by the White House to stave off a strike.
  • December corn overnight reached $6.72 3/4, up from $6.58 at the end of last week. A firm close to the week could confidence the market has established a near-term bottom after hitting a 2 1/2-month low at $6.51 1/4 on Tuesday. Initial resistance is seen at the 20-day moving average just under $6.75.

Soybeans are 11 to 13 cents higher, December soymeal is around $5 higher and December soyoil is more than 60 points higher.

  • Nearby soybeans are higher on strength in soymeal and corrective buying from Thursday’s declines, but the market is still heading for a weekly loss.
  • Crude oil’s slump hasn’t limited price upside in the soy complex. Front-month crude dropped under $78 a barrel to the lowest levels since late September amid concern Covid outbreaks in China may curb demand.
  • Weather in Brazil remains largely favorable for crop development. Timely and widespread rain expected Sunday through Wednesday should support crop development from west-central into central and southern Brazil and Paraguay, World Weather Inc. said.
  • January soybeans rose as high as $14.30 3/4, about 2 cents above the 20-day moving average, but are still down from $14.50 at the end of last week and are heading for the market’s third weekly drop in the past four.

Wheat futures are mostly lower at midmorning.

  • Wheat contracts extended Thursday’s declines as the Ukraine export deal extension eased global supply concerns. Weather problems in top producers such as Argentina and a tight global supply outlook may limit further downside.
  • The Argentine government slashed its wheat crop estimate to 13.4 MMT from 22.1 MMT previously, citing impact of drought and freezes.
  • Indian farmers have so far planted wheat and rapeseed on nearly 15% more area than a year ago, the latest data from the ag ministry showed. Wheat was planted on 10.1 million hectares as of Nov. 18, up from last year’s 8.8 million hectares. The area planted to rapeseed stood at 6.3 million hectares, up from last year’s 5.5 million hectares.
  • Russia’s wheat export tax for Nov. 23-23 will be 2,735.2 rubles ($45.31) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $312.50. That’s down from a rate of 2,922.1 rubles per metric ton the previous week.
  • Farmers in France had almost completed soft wheat and winter barley sowing by Nov. 14, and nearly all emerged crops were in good shape, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed. An estimated 98% of soft wheat and winter barley crops were in good or excellent condition.
  • Egypt purchased 60,000 MT of wheat from an unspecified origin via a private deal.
  • December SRW wheat rose as high as $8.16 1/2 overnight before stalling shy of the 20-day moving average about 1 cent above that level. The contract is down from $8.13 3/4 at the end of last week but up from a 2 1/2-month intraday low of $7.93 3/4 posted Thursday.

Live cattle are higher at midmorning while feeder cattle are mixed.

  • Live cattle are poised for a modest weekly gain behind a firm tone in the cash market, which continues to trade around the highest levels in 7 1/2 years.
  • Feeder cattle are being limited by strength in corn, which is heading for a firm gain for the week.
  • Cash cattle traded in the $151 to $152 area in the Southern Plains on Thursday, up around $1 to $2 from last week, while trade in the northern market turned active in the $154 to $155 range, also around $1 to $2 higher than last week.
  • Wholesale beef appears to be stabilizing following a recent downturn as demand remains solid. Choice beef cutout values rose 1 cent Thursday to $257.10 on strong movement of 165 loads.
  • USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon is expected to show the Nov. 1 feedlot inventory down 1.7% from last year. That would mark the second month in a row with a year-over-year decline in inventories after last month’s report showed the first such instance since December 2021. Feedlot placements during October fell an estimated 3.5% from the same month in 2021, based on a Reuters survey, which would be the seventh month this year placements were down versus 2021 levels. Marketings are expected to have increased 0.8%.
  • December live cattle rose as high a $153.225, the contract’s highest intraday price since Nov. 10 and are up from $151.525 at the end of last week. February live cattle reached $155.925.

Hog futures are lower, led by a drop of more than $1 in the February contract.

  • Nearby lean hog futures fell to lows for the week on pressure from slipping cash fundamentals and weaker pork demand.
  • Pork cutout values fell $1 Thursday to $92.63, near a 10-month low. Movement slowed to 252 loads, about 19% below the average for the past 30 days and a sign packers may cut prices further to encourage retailer demand as slaughter increases seasonally.
  • CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $88.14, a nine-month low. December futures’ discount to the index widened to about $4.065 from $2.565 two days ago but still near the levels typical for this time of year.
  • China imported 160,000 MT of pork in October, which was up 6.7% from September but down 20.6% from last year. Through the first 10 months of this year, China imported 1.38 MMT of pork, down 58.8% from the same period last year.
  • December lean hogs fell as low as $84.00, down from $84.35 at the end of last week, while February fell as low as $89.025, after hitting a three-week intraday high at $91.35 Thursday.
 

Latest News

U.S. PCE Price Index Up 0.3% in Feb. 2024, Core Inflation Slows to 2.8%
U.S. PCE Price Index Up 0.3% in Feb. 2024, Core Inflation Slows to 2.8%

Final day for landowners to submit acres for CRP general signup

H&P Report negative compared to pre-report expectations
H&P Report negative compared to pre-report expectations

Nearly every category topped the average pre-report estimates.

After the Bell | March 28, 2024
After the Bell | March 28, 2024

After the Bell | March 28, 2024

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor
Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn
PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn

Corn planting intentions and March 1 stocks came in lower than expected.