Market Snapshot | November 3, 2022

Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midsession.

• Corn futures fell to lows for the week as global supply concerns eased and the U.S. dollar soared after the Federal Reserve hiked benchmark interest rates and signaled more monetary tightening is coming.
• The Kremlin said Thursday it had not committed to extending the deal allowing Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports beyond the Nov. 19 deadline. Ukraine said it had made no commitments to Russia that go beyond the terms of the Black Sea grain deal to persuade Moscow to resume its participation.
• USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week ended Oct. 27 of 372,200 MT, up from 263,999 MT a week earlier and within trade expectations ranging from 250,000 to 600,000 MT.
• StoneX raised its U.S. corn crop estimate to 14.109 billion bu. on a yield of 174.5 bu. per acre, up from its October forecasts of 14.056 billion bu. and 173.9 bu. per acre. The brokerage tends to have a high bias versus USDA’s November forecasts, with corn too high seven times over the past 10 years and too low twice. USDA’s next Crop Production Report is Nov. 9.
• China updated its list of approved Brazilian corn exporters to include 136 facilities, opening the door for immediate shipments to the country.
• December corn pushed slightly under its 50-day moving average and fell as low as $6.78 1/2, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $6.76 1/4.

Soybeans are 17 to 18 cents lower, soymeal is $7 to $8 lower and soyoil is steady.

• Soybeans retreated as profit-taking emerged following Wednesday’s climb to six-week highs and weekly exports were at the low end of expectations.
• USDA reported net weekly soybean sales of 830,200 MT, down from 1.026 MMT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 700,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. China was the top buyer at 745,000 MT, including 404,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 211,300 MT.
• La Nina will keep precipitation in eastern Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state below normal for a few more weeks, World Weather Inc. said. “Soil moisture is not rated as poorly as one might imagine after two months of below normal rainfall, but a boost in rainfall will be needed soon,” the forecaster said.
• In Brazil, net drying is expected the next week except in the far northeast, where rain will occur over the next couple of days ending Saturday.
• StoneX lowered its soybean crop estimate to 4.413 billion bu. on a yield of 50.9 bu. per acre, down from 4.442 billion bu. and 51.3 bu. per acre last month. Similar to corn, StoneX has a high bias, with the firm’s soybean estimate higher than USDA’s November figure eight times in the past 10 years.
• Indonesia's crude palm oil output is seen at 48.23 MMT this year and exports of palm oil products are estimated at 23.95 MMT, based on a presentation by the chairman of its palm oil fund agency. Palm oil consumption for biodiesel use is estimated at 9.59 MMT this year.
• January soybeans fell as low as $14.28 but are still above support at the 40-, 50- and 100-day moving averages, which converge around $14.18.

Wheat futures are steady to a nickel higher after recovering from overnight declines.

• Wheat futures are up in a corrective bounce from Wednesday’s sharp declines, which were sparked by Russia’s resuming its participation in the Ukraine export deal.
• Net weekly U.S. wheat sales totaled 348,100 MT, down from 533,200 MT the previous week and at the lower end of trade expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
• Flooding and excessive rains across eastern Australia have resulted in extensive damage to the country’s wheat crop. Australia is still on track for a bumper harvest for a third straight year, but about half of the crop grown on its eastern grain belt is likely to be feed-grade wheat.
• U.S. HRW areas will receive some precipitation over the next week as a storm system moves through the eastern half of the region. “The thunderstorms will help promote locally meaningful rain amounts,” World Weather said. “However, a larger, more widespread rain event is needed.”
• Russia’s wheat export tax for Nov. 9-15 will be 3,012.0 rubles ($48.52) per MT based on an indicative price of $314.00. That’s up from a rate of 2,923.2 rubles per MT the previous week.
• December SRW wheat overnight fell as low as $8.27 3/4, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Oct. 28, before rebounding.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are mixed with a mostly firmer tone at mid-morning.

• Nearby live cattle futures bounced back from an initial drop to two-week lows and turned mixed as cash market strength continued to underpin prices.
• Feeder cattle are supported by weakness in corn.
• Limited cash cattle trade so far this week was reported at prices around $1 higher versus last week, though packers’ relative inaction has caused cautious corrective trade in futures.
• Choice beef cutout values rose 84 cents Wednesday to $263.47 on strong movement of 152 loads.
• USDA reported net weekly U.S. beef sales of 9,200 MT during the week ended Oct. 27, down from 14,100 MT the previous week. Purchases by Japan (3,000 MT, including decreases of 400 MT) and other countries were offset by reductions for China (900 MT). 
• December live cattle fell as low as $150.975, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Oct. 19, before rebounding. The contract held initial support at the 20-day moving average around $150.85.

Hog futures are mixed, with nearby contracts firmer and far-deferred contracts weaker.

• Lean hog futures found modest corrective buying after dropping to two-week lows initially.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 46 cents (as of Nov. 1) to $93.29, the fifth drop in the past six days and a two-week low.
• Weakness in wholesale pork is also pressing futures. Pork cutout values fell 98 cents Wednesday to a nine-month low of $96.23, though movement was strong at 326 loads.
• USDA reported net weekly U.S. pork sales at 47,900 MT, more than double the previous week’s 20,300 MT, led by Mexico (12,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (11,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT) and Japan (9,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT).
• December lean hogs fell as low as $83.275, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Oct. 17, but held initial support at the 50- and 40-day moving averages around $83.15 and $83.05, respectively.