Market Snapshot | October 25, 2022

Corn futures erased overnight declines and turned higher with support from a surge in the soy complex and supportive outside markets.
The lower Ohio River Basin, Tennessee River Basin and lower Mississippi River Basin are expected to receive rain of 0.20 to 0.75 inch today, with additional rainfall of 0.50 inch to nearly 2.0 inches late this weekend, World Weather Inc. said. The rain could lead to a small rise in river levels and slight improvement in barge movement.
Late Monday, USDA reported the U.S. corn harvest at 61% complete as of Sunday, up from 45% a week earlier and ahead of the 52% average for that date for the previous five years. Harvest progress was slightly below trade expectations for 62% complete.
Ukraine’s exports of agricultural products could reach 7.5 MMT in October, a rise of 8.7% from the 6.9 MMT it exported last month, the deputy chair of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council said on Tuesday. The official didn’t give a commodity-by-commodity breakdown of his export forecast.
South Korea purchased a total of 134,000 MT of corn in two separate tenders – 68,000 MT of optional origin supplies excluding the Black Sea region and 66,000 MT likely to be sourced from South America or South Africa.
December corn remains inside Monday’s range but has pushed above resistance around the 10-day moving average of $6.85 3/4.

Soybeans extended a slightly firmer overnight tone with support from surging soymeal and fading pressure as the U.S. harvest winds down. Hopes for further export demand from China remains a supportive factor.
USDA late Monday said 80% of the soybean harvest was complete as of Sunday, up from 63% a week earlier and well-ahead of the 67% five-year average. Analysts on average expected 77%.
Brazil weather “will be very well balanced over the next two weeks with periods of rain and dry weather supporting aggressive fieldwork and early season crop development,” World Weather said. The country’s soybean crop was 34% planted as of Oct. 22, similar to last year’s pace, according to CONAB.
November soybeans nudged above resistance at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, $13.81 3/4 and $13.85, respectively, but has yet to generate substantial followthrough buying above the latter level. Trendline resistance is seen around $14.05.

Winter wheat futures are trading near one-month lows hit overnight amid prospects for moisture relief in the U.S. Plains.
A system expected to move through the central and southern Plains “will produce erratic rainfall in hard red winter wheat areas Thursday into Friday, with 0.10 to 0.75 inch of moisture,” World Weather said. Northern Texas will be wettest, along with a few Oklahoma locations.
USDA reported 79% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 69% a week earlier and slightly ahead of the 78% five-year average. Planting progress was short of trade expectations for about 81% complete.
Ukraine maintained its forecast for winter wheat seedings at 3.8 million hectares despite planting delays due to unfavorable weather. The ag ministry said farmers had planted 3.1 million hectares to winter wheat as of Oct. 25.
December SRW wheat overnight fell as low as $8.30, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $8.25 1/2 on Sept. 20. Downside levels to watch include a late-September low at $8.19 1/4.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are mostly lower at midmorning.

Live cattle futures faded after initially climbing to contract highs was met by profit-taking and corrective selling. Cash strength continues to support futures.
Cash cattle averaged $150.07 last week, up $3.08 from the previous week’s yearly high and the highest price since July 2015. Showlist numbers are down sharply this week and market-ready fed cattle supplies will continue to tighten, sources reported, reinforcing a bullish outlook for cash and futures.
Wholesale beef also continued recent strength. Choice beef cutout values surged $4.21 Monday to $257.92, the highest daily average since Sept. 12, but movement was slower than recent weeks at 86 loads.
December live cattle reached $154.25, a contract high for the third consecutive session, before dropping to a slight loss at midmorning.

Hog futures are higher, led by gains in the December contract.

Lean hog futures rebounded from an initial price dip on continuing support from strengthening cash fundamentals and bullish charts.
The national direct cash hog price firmed 29 cents on Monday, despite weakness in Iowa/Minnesota and the western Corn Belt, suggesting supplies are tighter in other areas of the country.
The CME lean hog index is up 62 cents to $94.67 (as of Oct. 21), near a four-week high and the seventh increase in the past eight days. December futures are currently trading at a discount of more than $6 to the index, slightly larger than an eight-month low posted last week.
Pork cutout values rose 99 cents to $101.93 on strong movement of nearly 343 loads.
December hogs rose as high as $89.025, near the two-month high of $89.80 posted last Friday. Prices have corrected the slightly overbought conditions, with December currently posting 65.1 on the Relative Strength Index.

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