Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Posted on 02/13/2019 12:27 PM
advice

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  • Feb. 13: No changes. 

  • Feb. 12: No changes.

  • Feb. 11: No changes. 

  • Feb. 8 : No changes. 

  • Feb. 7: No changes. 

*Note: Check below daily to see if we recommend catch-up sales for individual markets. 

 
Corn
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 25% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 25% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

 

You should have a standing order to sell 15% of 2018-crop in the cash market if March corn futures hit $3.94 and an order to sell 10% of expected 2019-crop via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery if December corn futures hit $4.13. Get current with advised sales when March futures are above $3.80. 


Soybeans
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 40% sold
2019 crop: 20% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 40% sold
2019 crop: 30% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

35% hedge in July soybean futures at $8.96.

You should have standing orders to sell 10% of 2018-crop if March soybean futures hit $9.35 and to sell another 10% if futures hit $9.59. You should also have standing orders to sell 10% of expected 2019-crop via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery if November futures hit $9.75 and to sell another 10% via HTAs for harvest delivery if futures hit $10.00.  


Wheat
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 55% sold
2019 crop: 15% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 65% sold
2019 crop: 15% sold 

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

Wait to get current with 2018-crop sales. We are willing to wait on a price recovery to the $5.60 level in March SRW futures before selling more 2018-crop bushels. Additional 2019-crop sales would come at the same time.


Cotton
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 50% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 50% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

Wait on an extended correction to get current with advised sales. We'll also reevaluate the need for hedges after a correction. 

Livestock
Cattle

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%
Fed cattle producers should carry all risk in the cash market for now as futures and the cash market are trending higher.  
Hogs

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

Continue to carry all risk in the cash market. We feel traders removed too much premium on the recent price pullback. 


Feed
Corn

1st qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through March.

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%
You should have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through the end of March. Our target for extending coverage into spring would be a drop below $3.80 in May corn futures. 
Meal

1st qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through March.

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

You should have all soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through the end of March. Our target for extending coverage into spring would be a drop to the $305 level in May futures. 

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