Market Snapshot | August 11, 2022

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Corn futures are 7 to 8 cents higher at midsession.

Soy complex futures are broadly higher, with November soybeans up around 18 cents, September soymeal up nearly $8 and September soyoil up more than 100 points.

  • Soybeans resumed the rally of the past two weeks amid concerns persistent dryness will curtail yield prospects. USDA’s first survey-based crop estimate in Friday’s reports is expected to be lower than the July projection.
  • The soybean crop is expected to come in at 4.481 billion bu., based on a Reuters survey of analysts, down from USDA’s July projection of 4.505 billion bushels. The average U.S. yield is expected at 51.1 bu. per acre, down 0.4 bushels.
  • USDA reported net weekly soybean sales reductions of 66,700 MT for 2021-22. For 2022-23, net sales totaled 477,200 MT, primarily for China (195,000 MT) and “unknown destinations” (184,200 MT). Both figures were within trade expectations. USDA has reported net old-crop sales reductions in six of the past seven weeks.
  • USDA reported a daily sale of 103,400 MT of soybean meal for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.
  • Conab kept its soybean production and export forecasts unchanged at 124.0 MMT and 75.2 MMT, respectively.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentina’s soybean acres to rise by 4.3% to 16.8 million acres, citing producers’ preference for soybean production given “not very encouraging weather forecasts and high possibilities” of La Niña. The exchange projects 2022-23 production at 47 MMT for soybeans.
  • November soybeans reached $14.53, just under Wednesday’s high at $14.54 3/4 and close to the 100-day moving average at $14.63 1/2.

Wheat futures are posting gains of 10 to 14 cents at midmorning.

Live cattle futures are firmer at midmorning while feeder cattle are mostly lower.

  • Live cattle futures extended Wednesday’s gains to near four-month highs behind expectations for stronger cash prices and signs of solid beef demand.
  • Cash cattle sales were light through Wednesday, though the limited trade that did occur was around $1 higher in the northern live market and $2 to $3 higher for the dressed market. Cash sources didn’t indicate any activity in the Southern Plains, though the initial sales up north suggested prices will rise.
  • Choice beef cutout values fell $1.50 Wednesday to $263.23 but movement was again solid at 123 loads.
  • USDA reported net U.S. beef sales of 14,600 MT for 2022, up 22% from the previous week but down 17% from the prior four-week average. 
  • October live cattle reached $145.225, the contract’s highest intraday price since the contract high of $147.50 on April 22.

Hog futures are mildly higher.

  • October lean hog futures rose to a contract high for the second straight day on bullish technicals and firm cash fundamentals.
  • The CME lean hog index has turned choppy recently but the long-term trend remains higher. The index is down 16 cents today (as of Aug. 9) to $122.09. October futures have closed the gap with the index but remain at a steep discount.
  • Pork cutout values fell 18 cents Wednesday to $123.67, but movement was strong at 302 loads.
  • USDA reported net U.S. pork sales of 21,500 MT for 2022, down 31% from the previous week and down 6% from the prior four-week average. 
  • October lean hogs reached a contract high at $101.65.
 

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