Evening Report | July 11, 2022

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Corn crop conditions hold steady... USDA rated 64% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week though there was a one-percentage-point shift up in the top category. Traders surveyed by Reuters expected a one-point uptick in the “good” to “excellent” rating. USDA rated 10% of the crop “poor” to “very poor,” up a point from last week.

USDA reported 15% of the crop was silking as of Sunday, 10 points behind the five-year average. Some 2% of the crop was in dough, one point behind average for the date.

Soybean conditions drop again... USDA rated 62% of the crop as “good” to “excellent,” down a point from the previous week. Traders anticipated a one-point increase. USDA rated 9% of the crop as “poor” to “very poor,” unchanged from last week.

USDA reported 32% of the crop was blooming, double the rate from the previous week but still six points behind the five-year average. USDA said 6% of the crop was setting pods, three points behind normal for the second week of July.

Cotton crop improves... USDA rated 39% of the crop as “good” to “excellent,” up three percentage points from last week. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” dropped four points to 27%.

USDA reported 57% of the crop was squaring, one point behind the five-year average for the date. It said 22% of the crop was setting bolls, four points ahead of average.

Spring wheat crop conditions improve... USDA rated 70% of the crop as “good” to “excellent,” up four points from the previous week. Traders expected a one-point increase. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” dropped three points to 5%.

USDA estimated 44% of the crop was headed, 33 percentage points behind the five-year average. In top producer North Dakota, only 38% of the crop was headed versus 77% on average for the date.

Winter wheat harvest nearly two-thirds complete... As of Sunday, USDA reported 63% of the U.S. winter wheat crop had been cut, two points ahead of the five-year average but five points slower than traders anticipated. Harvest is nearly completed in the Southern Plains, with Texas at 97%, Oklahoma at 100% and Kansas at 95%.

July crop reports out Tuesday... USDA’s updated balance sheets in the July 12 Supply & Demand Report will reflect changes to old-crop demand forecasts based on June 1 stocks and its new-crop planted acreage estimates. USDA will also release its first all-wheat production estimate, including the first survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum. The average pre-report estimates for old-crop ending stocks are 1.488 billion bu. for corn and 208 million bu. for soybeans. Old-crop wheat ending stocks were set at 660 million bu. by June 1 stocks. For new-crop ending stocks, the average pre-report estimates are 1.442 billion bu. for corn, 211 million bu. for soybeans and 638 million bu. for wheat. All-wheat production is expected to come in at 1.745 billion bu., with winter wheat at 1.186 billion bu., other spring wheat at 458 million bu. and durum at 63 million bushels. (The following pre-report estimates are based on Reuters surveys; Bloomberg for cotton.)

FY 2023 WTO raw cane sugar TRQ established; FY 2022 TRQ increased, and entry period extended... USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) announced the fiscal year (FY) 2023 in-quota aggregate quantity of raw cane sugar at 1,117,195 metric tons raw value (MTRV) via a notice in the Federal Register. The agency also announced an increase in the FY 2022 raw cane sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) of 90,718 MTRV and an extension of the TRQ entry period. With this increase, the overall FY 2022 raw sugar TRQ is now 1,207,913 MTRV. FAS also announced all sugar entering the U.S. under the FY 2022 raw sugar TRQ will be able allowed through Oct. 31, a month later than the usual final entry date. “These actions are being taken after a determination that additional supplies of raw cane sugar are required in the U.S. market,” FAS said in a separate notice.

California regulators forcing many growers to stop diverting water from the Sacramento River... California regulators have begun curtailing the water rights of many farms and irrigation districts along the Sacramento River, forcing growers to stop diverting water from the river and its tributaries. The order, which took effect July 7, puts a hold on about 5,800 water rights across the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers’ watersheds, reflecting the severity of California’s extreme drought. Farms and cities across California have already been grappling with cuts in supplies from two large water-delivery systems, the State Water Project and the Central Valley Project. The drought has taken a toll on California’s agriculture industry. Researchers at UC Merced estimated that reduced water deliveries last year resulted in 395,000 acres of cropland left dry and unplanted. And growers have been leaving more land fallow this year in the Central Valley. Karen Ross, secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture, said initial projections point to more than 800,000 acres of farmland probably being left dry this year, including about 250,000 acres in the Sacramento Valley, which previously had largely been spared cutbacks.

Iowa Supreme Court reinstates pork producers’ right to farm... In a big victory for Iowa pork producers, the Iowa Supreme Court in a 4-3 decision said the state may provide livestock producers immunity from nuisance lawsuits such as ones complaining about odor. The court reversed a precedent that had struck down an Iowa law granting immunity to livestock farmers and allowed neighboring landowners to sue for damages when farm operations affected their “quality of life.” Under a ruling in a case brought by activists against New Fashion Pork, landowners still may sue if their property is “damaged” because of a farmer’s failure to comply with a federal or state law or regulation or to use prudent and generally accepted management practices. In the majority opinion, Judge Thomas Waterman wrote that “protecting and promoting livestock production is a legitimate state interest, and granting partial immunity from nuisance suits is a proper means to that end.”

EV tipping point reached... The U.S. is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical threshold: 5% of new car sales are electric. Bloomberg notes that if the U.S. stays the course established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales may be electric by the end of 2025. President Joe Biden has issued an executive order calling for EVs to make up half of new cars by 2030. Volkswagen, Ford, and BMW are targeting 50% or more of their global sales to be fully electric by the end of this decade.