USDA's July crop reports out Tuesday
USDA’s updated balance sheets in the July 12 Supply & Demand Report will reflect changes to old-crop demand forecasts based on June 1 stocks and its new-crop planted acreage estimates. USDA will also release its first all-wheat production estimate, including the first survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum. The average pre-report estimates for old-crop ending stocks are 1.488 billion bu. for corn and 208 million bu. for soybeans. Old-crop wheat ending stocks were set at 660 million bu. by June 1 stocks. For new-crop ending stocks, the average pre-report estimates are 1.442 billion bu. for corn, 211 million bu. for soybeans and 638 million bu. for wheat. All-wheat production is expected to come in at 1.745 billion bu., with winter wheat at 1.186 billion bu., other spring wheat at 458 million bu. and durum at 63 million bushels. (The following pre-report estimates are based on Reuters surveys; Bloomberg for cotton.)
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Expectations for U.S. Carryover |
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Corn – billion bushels |
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2021-22 |
2022-23 |
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Average est. |
1.488 |
1.442 |
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Range |
1.435 – 1.521 |
1.310 – 1.565 |
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USDA June |
1.485 |
1.400 |
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Soybeans – million bushels |
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2021-22 |
2022-23 |
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Average est. |
208 |
211 |
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Range |
190 - 224 |
141 - 275 |
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USDA June |
205 |
280 |
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Wheat – million bushels |
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2021-22 |
2022-23 |
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Average est. |
660* |
638 |
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Range |
NA |
559 - 690 |
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USDA June |
655 |
627 |
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* Set by June 1 stocks |
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Cotton – million bales |
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2021-22 |
2022-23 |
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Average est. |
NA |
2.87 |
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Range |
NA |
2.20 – 3.85 |
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USDA June |
3.40 |
2.90 |
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Expectations for Global Carryover |
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Corn – MMT |
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2021-22 |
2022-23 |
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Average est. |
311.32 |
310.49 |
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Range |
309.80 - 315.00 |
308.50 – 312.30 |
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USDA June |
310.92 |
310.45 |
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Soybeans – MMT |
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2021-22 |
2022-23 |
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Average est. |
86.43 |
99.37 |
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Range |
85.67 – 87.80 |
96.50 - 101.00 |
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USDA June |
86.15 |
100.46 |
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Wheat – MMT |
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2021-22 |
2022-23 |
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Average est. |
279.27 |
266.26 |
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Range |
278.50 – 280.01 |
240.00 – 272.48 |
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USDA June |
279.40 |
266.85 |
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Cotton – million bales |
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2021-22 |
2022-23 |
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Average est. |
NA |
82.45 |
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Range |
NA |
81.00 – 83.25 |
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USDA June |
82.95 |
82.77 |
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Expectations for |
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All wheat – billion bu. |
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Average est. |
1.745 |
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Range |
1.662 – 1.805 |
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USDA June |
1.737 |
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USDA 2021 |
1.646 |
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Winter wheat – billion bu. |
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Average est. |
1.186 |
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Range |
1.163 – 1.210 |
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USDA June |
1.182 |
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USDA 2021 |
1.277 |
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HRW wheat – million bu. |
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Average est. |
583 |
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Range |
562 - 601 |
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USDA June |
582 |
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USDA 2021 |
749 |
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SRW wheat – million bu. |
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Average est. |
362 |
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Range |
350 - 381 |
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USDA June |
354 |
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USDA 2021 |
358 |
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White winter wheat – million bu. |
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Average est. |
241 |
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Range |
232 - 252 |
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USDA June |
242 |
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USDA 2021 |
167 |
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Other spring wheat – million bu. |
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Average est. |
458 |
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Range |
336 - 526 |
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USDA June |
NA |
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USDA 2021 |
331 |
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Durum wheat – million bu. |
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Average est. |
63 |
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Range |
37 - 85 |
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USDA June |
NA |
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USDA 2021 |
37 |
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