Soybean Harvest 61% Complete in Brazil

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:24 AM

Brazil's soybean harvest is 61% complete, about four percentage points ahead of the five-year average, says South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. He says harvest is 85% complete in Mato Grosso, while Rio Grande do Sul has just 15% harvested. He left his crop estimate unchanged at 100 MMT and has a neutral bias toward the crop.

Meanwhile, Cordonnier says there is disagreement about safrinha corn acreage in Brazil, as some analysts look for acreage to increase by as much as 11% from year-ago and Conab looks for a modest 1.8% increase. "The safrinha corn is essentially all planted and the early condition of the crop is rated mostly good to very good," he says. "There has been a lot of rain during March in Mato Grosso and Parana, so even though the corn was planted late, the crop has been developing normally."

Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn peg unchanged at 84 MMT. "Even though the safrinha corn is currently in good condition, I am going to be conservative in my estimate because much of the crop was planted very late and the long-range forecast could pose problems for the crop," he says.

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
100.0
103.0
98.0
96.2
Argentina
60.0
62.0
59.0
60.8
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.4
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
3.5
3.8
3.2
3.1
Total
175.3
181.4
171.2
171.4
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
84.0
87.0
81.0
85.4
Argentina
25.0
27.0
23.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
113.3
118.8
107.7
116.2


Cordonnier says soybean harvest has started in central Argentina, where the earliest soybeans were planted. "Early yield reports are above average and in some locations, they are approaching record levels," he says, noting he has a higher bias toward the crop. "I almost increased the Argentine soybean estimate by 1 MMT this week, but decided to hold off until a little more of the crop is harvested."

Around 4% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested and yield reports are coming in very good, reports Cordonnier. "The corn yields are very good, but they are not quite as exceptional as the early soybean yields," he notes. "The reason is there were some areas that experienced hot and dry conditions during pollination."


 

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