Evening Report | May 2, 2022

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Corn planting falls farther behind the average pace... USDA reports 14% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of Sunday, an advance of seven points from the previous week but now 19 points behind the five-year average. Traders expected planting to be 16% completed. In the top 12 production states, planting stood at 7% in Illinois (43% on average), 6% in Indiana (25%), 9% in Iowa (42%), 35% in Kansas (36%), 1% in Michigan (10%), 0% in Minnesota (28%), 27% in Missouri (52%), 28% in Nebraska (34%), 0% in North Dakota (5%), 3% in Ohio (16%) 3% in South Dakota (13%) and 1% in Wisconsin (14%).

USDA reported corn emergence was half the average rate for the beginning for May at 3%.

 

Soybean planting also lagging... Soybean planting was 8% done as of Sunday, according to USDA, up five points over the past week but five points behind the five-year average. That was right in line with expectations. As expected, soybean planting was well behind normal across most of the Corn Belt. USDA reported soybean planting at 5% in Illinois (19% on average), 3% in Indiana (13%), 4% in Iowa (17%), 0% in Minnesota (9%), 19% in Nebraska (15%), 0% in North Dakota (1%), 2% in Ohio (8%) and 1% in South Dakota (4%).

 

Cotton planting just ahead of normal... USDA says 16% of the U.S. cotton crop was planted as of May 1, one point ahead of the five-year average. Texas had 20% of its crop in the ground, three points ahead of average, while Georgia was 11% planted, two points behind normal.

 

Winter Wheat conditions unchanged... USDA continued to rate 27% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from the previous week. Traders expected a one-point improvement. USDA rated 43% of the crop as “poor” to “very poor,” up four points over the past week.

 

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

22

20

6

Poor

21

19

13

Fair

30

34

33

Good

24

24

42

Excellent

3

3

6


USDA reported 23% of the crop had headed, up 12 points from the previous week but six points behind the five-year average. In the major HRW states, the crop was 10% headed in Kansas (17% on average), 42% headed in Oklahoma (60%) and 66% headed in Texas (72%).

 

Spring wheat planting falls farther behind average... As of Sunday, USDA reported 19% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was seeded, up six points over the past week but nine points behind the five-year average. Top producer North Dakota had seeded only 5% of its crop versus 18% on average. Only Montana (31% vs. 26%) and Washington (75% vs. 74%) were running ahead of average.

The spring wheat crop was 5% emerged, two points behind normal for the beginning of May.

 

March soy crush record-large... U.S. soy processors crushed 192.9 million bu. of soybeans in March, according to USDA, up 18.5 million bu. (10.6%) from February and 4.7 million bu. (2.5%) more than March 2021. Through the first seven months of 2021-22, soy crush totaled 1.312 billion bu., 0.8% ahead of the same period last year. To hit USDA’s forecast of a record 2.215 billion bu., the crush pace would need to total 903 million bu. over the final five months of the marketing year. Given strong processing margins through summer, the crush pace should not only hit USDA’s forecast but exceed it, with our projection at 2.230 billion bushels.

 

March corn-for-ethanol use a little shy of expectations... U.S. processing plants consumed 454.9 million bu. of corn for ethanol production in March, according to USDA, up 48.9 million bu. (12.0%) versus February and 35.6 million bu. (8.2%) more than March 2021. For the first seven months of the 2021-22 marketing year, corn-for-ethanol use totaled 3.144 billion bu., up 9.5% from the same period last year. The pace needs to run 3.2% above year-ago over the final five months of the marketing year to hit USDA’s forecast of 5.375 billion bushels. Total corn use at 511.2 million bu. in March was up 55.5 million bu. (12.2%) from February and 37.5 million bu. (7.9%) versus year-ago.  
 

Thailand considering suspending corn, wheat import controls... Thailand’s government has proposed two measures to boost livestock feed ingredient imports, Reuters reported. One proposal would allow up to 600,000 MT of corn to be imported free of the 20% duty from May to July. Currently, up to 54,700 MT of corn can be imported duty-free. Another proposal would temporarily suspend controls on wheat imports over the same period. Currently, feed mills must source their corn with a ratio of 3-1 in favor of domestic suppliers to earn a quota to import wheat.
 

Heat wave threatens India’s wheat crop... India’s wheat output looks likely to fall this year after five consecutive record harvests, as a sharp, sudden rise in temperatures in mid-March cut crop yields. In mid-February, the Indian government said the country was on course to harvest a record 111.32 MMT wheat crop, up from last year’s 109.59 MMT production. “I think production could be down 10% to around 100 MMT,” said India head of a global trading firm, who declined to be named, told Reuters.

At this stage, no one has a clear idea about the crop size, Rajesh Paharia Jain, a New Delhi-based trader, told Reuters. “It’s a dynamic situation, so we will have to wait for a while to see a clearer picture,” Jain said. Reduced production would likely trim wheat exports. “Based on the production estimates issued by the government in February, we could have easily exported much more than 12 MMT [of wheat], but it now looks like we'll be exporting around 10 MMT,” he said.
 

Growth Energy sues EPA over 2023 and beyond RFS levels... Growth Energy filed suit Friday, April 29, in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, charging that EPA’s delay in announcing its proposed method for setting Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) levels for 2023 and beyond has caused the industry harm. The group said EPA was to have finalized its rule establishing volumes for 2023 in November 2021, but the agency has not yet even released the proposed rule. Growth Energy said by the time EPA comes with its plan for 2023, it “may be too late for plaintiff’s members to be able to adjust their production levels,” according to the complaint. “This uncertainty and inability to plan future production directly affects plaintiff’s members’ bottom line."

 

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