IMF/World Bank Hold Annual Spring Meetings in D.C. Amid Rising Global Inflation

( )

Russia warns U.S. to stop sending weapons to Ukraine or risk ‘unpredictable consequences’
 


Washington Focus


The House and Senate are on Easter recess.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank hold their annual spring meetings in Washington, D.C. against a backdrop of rising global inflation, a war in Europe and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. New economic forecasts are expected to show cooling global growth.

     Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and other senior Ukrainian officials will travel to D.C. to attend the spring financial meetings.

President Joe Biden is traveling to Portland and Seattle this week. Biden will tout the bipartisan infrastructure law in Portland and will discuss clean energy in Seattle.

In state news, California is considering a four-day workweek. A proposal in the state legislature would define the workweek as 32 hours, not 40, for companies with more than 500 employees. By the end of next week, a state legislative committee is expected to decide if the bill will move forward. If passed, it could affect more than 2,000 businesses, including many big tech companies.

Friday is Earth Day. The holiday was created in the U.S. to increase public awareness of environmental problems and is now celebrated around the world. The theme of Earth Day 2022 is "Invest in Our Planet."

Russia/Ukraine update: The last Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol showed no signs of surrender Sunday, and Russian officials warned that the holdouts “will all be eliminated” as Moscow’s forces seek to complete their takeover of the strategically important southeastern port city. Russia warned the U.S. to stop sending weapons to Ukraine or risk “unpredictable consequences.” The U.S. and allies plan for long-term isolation of Russia and have begun planning for a different world, in which they no longer try to coexist and cooperate with Russia, but actively seek to isolate and weaken it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CNN that Ukraine is not willing to give up territory in the eastern part of the country to end the war with Russia, and Ukraine's military is prepared to fight Moscow's military in the Donbas region in a battle he says could influence the course of the entire war. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Sunday that his country is running a $5 billion-a-month deficit and needs financial assistance. He is expected to visit Washington this week.

     Europe can reduce energy dependence on Russia quicker than previously estimated, Mario Draghi said in an interview with Corriere della Sera. “Diversification is possible and feasible relatively quickly, shorter than we imagined just a month ago,” the Italian prime minister said after reaching an agreement to increase gas imports from Algeria. Italy currently gets about 40% of its gas from Russia, and Draghi has sought alternative sources since President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February.

 


Events on Tap This Week


With Congress out, the focus is on the IMF and World Bank meetings, more discussion of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and various Federal Reserve speakers.

Monday, April 18

     · Federal Reserve. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard to speak.

· Easter egg roll. White House holds the 144th annual White House Easter Egg Roll with the theme “EGGucation.”

· IMF/World Bank meetings. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group hold 2022 Spring Meeting via webcast with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivering remarks on “Breaking Barriers.” Runs through Saturday.

· Macro Week. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion as part of Macro Week, with remarks from Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong and Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo; runs through Friday.

· Digital currencies. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Central bank digital currencies for emerging market economies.”

· Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Hudson Institute virtual event on “What to Expect from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.”

· Airline industry. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian on the “Airline Industry,” focusing on the pandemic and consumer demand.

· Trade, technology and climate change. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “trade, technology, climate change, and shifts in the workplace,” as part of the Economy Disrupted series.

· Climate change issues. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “What Comes After the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report?”

Tuesday, April 19

· Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans to speak.

· IMF/World Bank meetings. IMF and the World Bank Group hold their 2022 Spring Meeting via webcast, with a press briefing on the World Economic Outlook and on the Global Financial Stability Report. Other events include a focus on “Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; and Agustin Carstens, general manager at the Bank for International Settlements, participates in a discussion on “New Forms of Digital Money.”

· State of the global economy. U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion on “The State of the Global Economy.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: German views. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion on “Germany and the Impact of the War in Ukraine.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: China views. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “How the Chinese Public Views Russia's War in Ukraine.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: French views. Hudson Institute virtual discussion with French Ambassador to the United States Philippe Etienne on “Russia's war on Ukraine and its implications for France's foreign policy and Franco-American relations.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: Developing countries’ impact. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Buffering Developing Countries from the Broader Economic Shocks.”

· CODEX session. U.S. Codex Office teleconference to provide information and receive public comments on agenda items and draft U.S. positions to be discussed at the 15th Session of the Codex Committee on Contaminants in Foods (CCCF) of the Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC), which will convene virtually, May 9-13.

· International financial system. Institute of International Finance virtual discussion on “International Financial System Under Stress: Sanctions and De-dollarization in an Uncertain Future.”

· China competition. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion on “Building Alliances and Competing with China: The Imperative for UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) Export Reforms.”

· ‘Health taxes.’ Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “Health Taxes During the Recovery from Covid-19,” referring to taxes levied on tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages.

· PFAS, PFOS in drinking water. Environmental Protection Agency virtual meeting of the National Drinking Water Advisory Council (NDWAC) for the EPA to update the Council on Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) programs and to consult with NDWAC as required by SDWA on a proposed National Primary Drinking Water Regulation for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS).

· Data privacy. National Association for Business Economics virtual discussion on “How Should Economists Think About Data Privacy?”

· Disasters and rural and native communities. Urban Institute virtual discussion on “Building Rural and Native Communities' Resilience to Disasters.”

· Brazilian economy. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Brazil's Economic Future in Times of Change.”

· Future of the Republican party. Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute discussion on “critical questions facing the future of the Republican Party,” as part of the Time for Choosing speaker series.

Wednesday, April 20

· Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans scheduled to speak.

· IMF/World Bank meetings. IMF and the World Bank Group 2022 Spring Meeting via webcast with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holding a press briefing, World Bank President David Malpass holds an opening press conference, and a session on “The Digital Revolution: Fostering Inclusion and Resilient Growth.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: Sanctions. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Sanctions, Russia's War, and the Future of Trade.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: U.S. policy. SETA Foundation at Washington DC virtual discussion on “NATO's Response and the U.S. Policy on Ukraine.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: Polish views. National Economists Club (luncheon discussion the Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

· Global food systems and GHG emissions. Woodrow Wilson Center's (China Environment Forum virtual discussion on “Food System Transformation Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China and Beyond.”

· U.S. jobs market and Covid. Bureau of Labor Standards virtual forum on “Employment, Prices and the Job market After Covid-19.”

· Energy transportation. Surface Transportation Board meeting of the Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee, including a discussion regarding issues including rail service, infrastructure planning and development; effective coordination among suppliers, rail carriers, and users of energy resources.

· Financing green development. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “Financing Green Development.”

· Cryptocurrencies and hackers. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on a new report, “Following the Crypto: Using Blockchain Analysis to Assess the Strengths and Vulnerabilities of North Korean Hackers.”

· Decarbonization and the global economy. Wall Street Journal Pro Sustainable Business Forum, including a panel discussion on “Navigating Decarbonization During Global Uncertainty;” Satyamj Khanna, former senior policy adviser for climate and ESG at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, participates in a discussion on “The Global Outlook for Regulation.”

· Macro week. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion as part of Macro Week, with remarks from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.

· Tax expenditures. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “Is it Time to Rationalize Tax Expenditures?”

· CFTC whistleblower. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on “How the Largest Whistleblower Award in History Came About,” focusing on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

· International trade. Center for International Law virtual forum on international trade, including attention on forced labor.

Thursday, April 21

· Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Pro Tempore Jerome Powell delivers pre-recorded remarks at the Volker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research Special Briefing and will discuss the global economy at the International Monetary Fund Debate on the Global Economy.

· IMF/World Bank meeting. IMF and the World Bank Group 2022 Spring Meeting via webcast, with World Bank President David Malpass in a discussion on “Transitioning Economies, Transforming Climate: Financing Climate Action for a Green and Inclusive Future” and Federal Reserve Board Chair Pro Tempore Jerome Powell participates in a debate on the “Global Economy.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: Ukraine refugees. New America and the Norwegian Refugee Council virtual discussion on “Millions of Ukrainians Have Fled. What Happens to Their Property?”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: Nuclear issues. Air and Space Forces Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum to discuss “evolving events in Ukraine, the performance of the Russian military, NATO, U.S. responses, and implications for the future.”

· International energy issues. International Energy Agency virtual briefing on “how to save money, reduce reliance on Russian energy, support Ukraine and help the planet.”

· Macro Week. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion as part of Macro Week, including remarks from European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

· EV batteries and critical minerals. House Science, Space and Technology Investigations and Oversight Subcommittee field hearing on “Pedal to the Metal: Electric Vehicle Batteries and the Critical Minerals Supply.”

· Broadband and EVs. Protocol virtual discussion on “How is the Infrastructure Rollout Going — and What Does it Mean for Tech?” focusing on broadband expansion and electric vehicle adoption.

· Universal broadband. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “How close is the U.S. to universal broadband?”

· Recession risk. Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research virtual briefing on “Inflation and Recession Risks for States and Cities.”

· U.S./China relations. Woodrow Wilson Center Institute on China and the United States virtual discussion on “Finding Firmer Ground: The Role of Higher Education in U.S./China Relations.”

Friday, April 22

· U.S./China relations. Woodrow Wilson Center's Asia Program virtual eighth annual Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture on “How, and Why, China/U.S. Relations have Worsened Since 2012.”

· IMF/World Bank meetings. IMF and the World Bank Group 2022 Spring Meeting via webcast including a European Department press briefing, a session on “Inflation Dynamics in a Fragile Global Economy,” and a session on “Looking Ahead: Navigating a More Shock Prone World.”

· Macro Week. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion with remarks from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: Impact on Ukraine, Middle East. Middle East Policy Council virtual 108th Capitol Hill Conference on “The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the Middle East.”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine: Global economic impacts. German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “The Global Economic Impact of Russia's War on Ukraine.”

· Korea elections and impact on U.S. relations. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion on “South Korea's Presidential Election and Expectations of the U.S./Republic of Korea (ROK) Alliance.”
 


Economic Reports and Events for the Week


On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors will release existing home sales data for March. Sales were down 7.2% in February from the prior month. Borrowing costs have continued to rise since then and last week hit the symbolic 5% threshold. 

Econ reports 041822

Monday, April 18

  • National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 77 reading, two points lower than the March figure. The index has declined for three consecutive months as surging mortgage rates have made home builders less optimistic about the housing sector in general.
  • China Q1 GDP. Update: China's first quarter GDP beat expectations to grow 4.8% year-on-year, above expectations of a 4.4% increase from a year ago. The data was released by the National Bureau of Statistics Monday China time. However, retail sales in March fell by a more-than-expected 3.5% from a year earlier. Analysts polled by Reuters anticipated a 1.6% decline. Fixed asset investment for the first quarter rose by 9.3% from a year ago, topping expectations for 8.5% growth. Industrial production in March rose by 5%, beating the forecast for 4.5% growth.

Tuesday, April 19

  • Census Bureau reports new residential construction statistics for March. Economists project a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.76 million privately owned housing starts, roughly even with the February figure, which was the highest since June 2006.
  • Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will be speaking at a fireside chat during Reuters' Responsible Business USA 2022 conference in New York, which runs through Wednesday. Last week, Gensler defended the SEC's proposal to require large companies to disclose details about their emissions and will likely use this venue to further state his case.
  • Federal Reserve: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans to speak.

Wednesday, April 20

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for March. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million homes sold. If estimates prove correct, it would be the lowest total since June 2020.
  • Federal Reserve Beige Book
  • Federal Reserve: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans scheduled to speak.

Thursday, April 21

  • Jobless Claims: New filings for unemployment insurance rose slightly during the week that ended April 9 following several weeks in which they flirted with record lows. Economists anticipate that they dropped slightly to 180,000 in the week ended April 16.
  • Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.3% month-over-month increase to a 120.3 reading. The Conference Board is currently projecting 3% gross-domestic-product growth for this year.
  • Phila. Fed Mfg.
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply  
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking twice: In the morning, he'll give the welcoming remarks via pre-recorded video at the Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research special briefing on inflation and recession risks for cities, and in the afternoon, he will be on a panel at the International Monetary Fund debate on the global economy. He will be joined by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva against the backdrop of the IMF's and World Bank's annual spring meetings in Washington.

Friday, April 22

  • IHS Markit releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for April. Expectations are for a 58.2 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 58.3 reading for the Services PMI. Both would be roughly even with March’s levels.
     

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine still brings more questions than answers on plantings and exports from the region, while U.S. weather is also a focus regarding new crop plantings. USDA daily export sales announcement will also be watched to see if China keeps up its recent pace of soybean and corn purchases.
 

Monday, April 18

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • China’s second batch of March trade data, including corn, cotton, wheat and pork imports
  • China 1Q pork output and inventory levels
  • Holiday: Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, France, U.K., Germany

Energy reports and events:

  • China March output data including crude oil and refining
  • China’s 2nd batch of March trade data including oil products breakdown

Tuesday, April 19

     Ag reports and events:

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Data
  • Vegetables and Pulses Data
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Holiday: Malaysia

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, April 20

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • U.S. Bioenergy Statistics
  • Livestock Slaughter, Annual
  • Milk Production
  • China’s third batch of March trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
  • China Agricultural Outlook Conference, Beijing
  • Malaysia’s April 1-20 palm oil export data

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
  • China’s 3rd batch of March trade data, including country breakdowns for energy

Thursday, April 21

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Chickens and Eggs
  • Livestock Slaughter
  • International Grains Council monthly report
  • Holiday: Brazil

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • Russian weekly refinery outage data from ministry
  • Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region

Friday, April 22

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC Commitments of Traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • Raw-Fiber Equivalents of U.S. Textile Trade Data
  • Cattle on Feed
  • Cold Storage
  • Brazil’s Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

 

Latest News

After the Bell | March 27, 2024
After the Bell | March 27, 2024

After the Bell | March 27, 2024

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor
Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

Market Watch | March 27, 2024
Market Watch | March 27, 2024

Cash cattle prices soar to all-time high.

Baltimore Bridge Collapse: Limited Impact on Trade Basis Channel Reopening Timeline
Baltimore Bridge Collapse: Limited Impact on Trade Basis Channel Reopening Timeline

RFK Jr. VP | Dairy cattle bird flu update | John Deere layoffs | Dollar/yen exchange rate 34-year high

Ahead of the Open | March 27, 2024
Ahead of the Open | March 27, 2024

Corn and soybeans each favored the downside overnight, with corn leading the way lower. Wheat showed relative strength and went into the break near unchanged.

First Thing Today | March 27, 2024
First Thing Today | March 27, 2024

Corn, soybeans and wheat extended Tuesday’s losses during the overnight session.