Market Snapshot | April 11, 2022

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Corn futures are 1 to 3 cents higher at midmorning but down from overnight gains.

  • Nearby corn futures climbed to five-week highs overnight, boosted by fresh export business from China and a rally in wheat.
  • USDA reported daily corn sales totaling 1.02 MMT to China, with 680,000 MT for 2021-22 and 340,000 MT for 2022-23. The purchase followed a corn sale to China a week ago for a total of 1.084 MMT.
  • Also today, USDA reported 1.419 MMT (55.9 million bu.) of corn inspected for export during the week ended April 7, down from 1.54 MMT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 1.1 to 1.95 MMT.
  • Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA expects wheat production to plunge around 45% to 18.2 MMT and corn output to fall 38% to 23.1 MMT this year due to fallout from the war with Russia. UGA expects the country to export 10 MMT of wheat and 20 MMT of corn in 2022-23.
  • USDA will update planting progress after the close today. The corn crop was 2% planted as of April 3, even with the five-year average.
  • May corn futures reached $7.78, the highest intraday price since $7.80 1/4 on March 7. The lead contract rallied 33 3/4 cents last week and continued strength this week may have bulls targeting the $7.82 3/4 contract high posted March 4.
  • December corn hit $7.23 1/4, a contract high for the second session in a row, with wet, cool weather in much of the Midwest likely to slow planting.

Soy complex futures are weaker, with old-crop soybeans down 26 to 30 cents, nearby soymeal down more than $6 and nearby soyoil down 65 to 85 points.

  • Nearby soybeans faded sharply from overnight gains as heavy selling in Nymex crude oil pressured the soy complex.
  • New-crop November futures are holding up somewhat better but could face increasing pressure from expectations a slow start to U.S. corn planting may lead to higher soybean acres.
  • USDA reported 766,232 MT (28.2 million bu.) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ended April 7, up from 741,290 MT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 500,000 to 900,000 MT.
  • May soybeans faded after climbing overnight to $16.97 1/2, the highest intraday price since March 28. The lead contract rallied $1.06 1/4 last week following USDA cuts to South American production and U.S. ending stocks forecasts.

Wheat futures are higher, led by gains of more than 40 cents in nearby HRW contracts and over 30 cents in nearby SRW.

Live cattle futures are mildly lower at midmorning, while feeders are sharply lower.

  • Feeder cattle are under pressure from strength in the corn market.
  • Live cattle are being pulled lower by the selling in feeders.
  • Choice cutout values ended last week at $270.47, up $3.33 from the previous week.
  • Cash cattle have been largely flat for the past five weeks. Feedlots may seek firmer prices this week, but it’s more likely the market will hold relatively steady. Live steers averaged $138.77 last week through Friday morning, down 55 cents from the previous week's average.
  • June live cattle futures reached $135.225 this morning before trimming gains. Key support is seen at last week’s low of $132.475. Initial resistance is seen at the 10- and 20-day moving averages around $135.40 and $135.95, respectfully.

Hog futures are lower at midmorning.

  • Lean hog futures extended last week’s sharp declines as cash fundamentals continued to slide.
  • The CME lean hog index is down another 62 cents today (as of April 7), the seventh straight daily decline. April hogs are trading around $1.70 below today’s cash quote, though the lead contract’s discount is unlikely to generate much buying interest until the index shows strength.
  • Pork cutout values ended last week at $103.16, down 44 cents for the week.
  • Packers slaughtered an estimated 2.43 million head last week, down 4,000 from the previous week and down 24,000 from the same week in 2021.
  • June lean hog futures fell as low as $112.925 before rebounding, though the contract remains lower. Key support is seen at last week’s low of $112.20.
 

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