10:30 Market Snapshot | April 1, 2022

Corn futures are widely mixed with old-crop 2 to 5 cents lower and December around 9 cents higher.

• Old-crop corn futures are being pressured by the selling in soybeans. New-crop futures are supported by yesterday’s lower-than-expected corn planting intentions from USDA.
• The Russian government lifted the ban on grain exports to Eurasian Economic Union countries.
• U.S. officials say Russia has attacked at least six large grain storage facilities in eastern Ukraine. This reduces supplies and could drive up prices for countries in Africa and the Middle East that are already near a “breaking point,” according to the United Nations.
• Corn-for-ethanol use for February is expected to decline to 414.6 million bu. in this afternoon’s USDA report. That would be down 12.5% from January but up 24.5% from last year.
• Despite this morning’s pressure, May corn futures are holding within the month-long sideways range and are trading well above Tuesday’s low at $7.13 1/2 that for now signals a failed downside breakout.

Old-crop soybeans are 11 to 17 cents lower, with November beans down around 6 cents. Soymeal is mostly $6 to $9 lower. Soyoil is as much as 120 points higher.

• Soybeans are seeing active followthrough selling after yesterday’s poor closes in response to USDA’s soybean planting intentions figure, which greatly topped expectations.
• Funds are liquidating long positions and money flow has shifted. Technical-based selling is also weighing on the market.
• Active spreading is being seen in the soy product markets. Soymeal futures are following soybeans, while soyoil has rebounded to post gains.
• Analysts expect USDA this afternoon to report February soybean crush at 175.4 million bu., based on a Bloomberg survey. If realized, that would be down 9.7% from January but up 6.8% from last year.
• May soybean futures have dropped below the psychological $16.00 mark, which triggered some additional sell stops. Key near-term support is at the Feb. 25 low at $15.79.

SRW wheat futures are slightly firmer in choppy trade. HRW futures are mostly 9 to 12 cents higher at midmorning. HRS futures are mostly 11 to 18 cents higher.

• Winter wheat price action has been choppy throughout the morning.
• Spring wheat futures are showing followthrough buying to yesterday’s gains that were tied to lower-than-expected spring wheat planting intentions. HRS futures are trading well below Thursday’s post-report reaction highs.
• SovEcon raised its 2021-22 Russian wheat export forecast by 400,000 MT to 33.9 MMT due to the weak ruble and strong exports the second half of March. The Russia-based consultancy expects the country to reach the 8-MMT wheat export quota through June.
• The Russian government lifted the ban on grain exports to Eurasian Economic Union countries.
• U.S. officials say Russia has attacked at least six large grain storage facilities in eastern Ukraine. This reduces supplies and could drive up prices for countries in Africa and the Middle East that are already near a “breaking point,” according to the United Nations.

Nearby feeder cattle are firmer. Live cattle are narrowly mixed.

• April and May feeder cattle are being supported by the drop in old-crop corn futures.
• Price action is light and choppy in the live cattle market as traders wait to see if there will be any more cash trade this week.
• Feedlots in the Southern Plains moved some additional cattle around $138 on Thursday, steady with both earlier trade and last week. Feedlots in the northern dressed market continued to hold out for hopes of firmer bids.
• Wholesale beef prices continued to firm, with Choice gaining $1.35 and Select up $4.88 on Thursday. But movement stayed light at 96 loads, signaling continued selective buying from retailers.

April and May hog futures are mildly firmer. Deferred contracts are sharply higher.

• April lean hog futures are being supported by their roughly $1.40 discount to the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index today (as of March 30) is down 53 cents to $103.13.
• The rebound in summer-month hogs would negate yesterday’s key bearish reversals if the market can hold onto gains into the close.
• The pork cutout value firmed $4.00 yesterday and movement improved to 358.50 loads.