Survey: Combined corn/bean acres to drop

Results of the Pro Farmer/Doane planting intentions survey not surprisingly signaled corn acres will decline and soybean acres will increase this year. But our survey surprisingly showed combined corn and soybean acres would decline 900,000 acres from last year to 179.7 million acres, with soybean acres not expected to rise as much as we previously projected. We forecast total acres planted to the big four crops (corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton) will rise 1.7 million acres from last year to 240.2 million acres. 

   Corn: 91.9 million acres, down 1.5 million acres from 2021
    Soybeans: 87.8 million acres, up 600,000 acres from 2021
    Wheat: 48.5 million acres, up 1.8 million acres from 2021
    Cotton: 12.0 million acres, up 800,000 acres from 2021
    Sorghum: 7.0 million acres, down 300,000 acres from 2021

Not surprisingly, producers across the I-80 corridor indicated no change in combined corn and soybean acres. Producers in the northern states of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan noted fewer combined acres of corn and soybeans. Spring wheat is likely to take some acres away from corn and soybeans in North Dakota and Minnesota. Cotton is also likely to “steal” some acres in the Delta.

Corn

Over the past six years, our estimate of corn acres has been above USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report three times and lower three times by an average of 500,000 acres too low. Our survey has been closer to final corn acres than USDA’s March estimate the last four years and eight of the past 10 years. Over the past 10 years, relative to final acreage, our survey averaged just 200,000 acres too high.

Soybeans

Over the past six years, our estimate of soybean acres has been above USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report four times and lower two times by an average of 500,000 acres too high. USDA has been closer than our survey to final acres eight of the past 10 years. Over the past 10 years, relative to final acreage, our survey averaged 1.4 million too high.