Market Snapshot | March 15, 2022

Corn futures are mostly 1 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are under pressure from technical selling and profit-taking, with slumping crude oil also lending pressure. Strength in wheat may limit price downside as corn market focus shifts toward the U.S. spring planting season.
• Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimated at 112 MMT as he waits to see how weather the next three months develops. He also kept his Argentina crop forecast at 49 MMT.
• South Korea tendered to buy up to 210,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., South America, South Africa or the Black Sea/eastern Europe.
• May corn fell as low as $7.36, the lowest intraday price since $7.29 on March 10. Initial support is seen at last week’s low of $7.28 3/4, reached March 8.

Soybeans are 15 to 19 cents lower, nearby soymeal is over $2 lower and nearby soyoil is over 100 points lower.

• Nearby soybean futures fell to the lowest level in over a week, burdened by steep declines in crude oil and concern over recent Covid lockdowns in China, which had been actively buying U.S. soybeans the past six weeks.
• Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 123 MMT and held forecast for Argentine production unchanged at 39 MMT. He also left his Paraguay soybean crop estimate at 5 MMT.
• “There is truly a stark difference in soybean yields across Brazil,” Cordonnier said in a weekly report. “The soybean yields in southern Brazil are some of the worst anybody has ever seen, while at the same time, soybean yields in central and northern Brazil are quite good.”
• Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) are expected to report soybean crush totaled 165.0 million bu. in February, based on a Reuters survey. That would be down from 182.2 million bu. from January but up from 155.2 million bu. last year.
• Traders expect soyoil stocks to decline to 1.985 billion pounds.
• May soybeans overnight pushed under the 20-day moving average around $16.49 1/2 and fell as low as $16.44, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $16.34 1/2 on March 4. Further support is seen around $16.00 and the late February low of $15.79.

Wheat futures are higher, led by gains of 20 to 30 cents in HRW and SRW.

• Wheat futures extended yesterday’s gains amid ongoing concern the Russia/Ukraine war will force global buyers to seek other grain suppliers. Russia yesterday enacted a planned suspension of grain exports to ex-Soviet countries.
• Supply concerns have been compounded by worsening drought in the U.S. Plains. More than half of Kansas was classified in severe drought or worse as of March 8, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center. Severe drought is also covering three-quarters of Oklahoma and more than two-thirds of Texas.
• Japan is seeking to buy 104,483 MT of wheat in its weekly tender.
• May SRW wheat is trading within yesterday’s range. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $11.48 3/4, with further resistance at the 20-day moving average at $11.85. Initial support is seen at yesterday’s low of $10.64.

Cattle futures are mixed and trading in narrow ranges at midmorning.  

• Live cattle futures faded from initial strength after the April contract failed to take out yesterday’s high at $140.90. Feeder cattle are being supported by weakness in the corn market.
• Live cattle futures appear to have established a near-term bottom following share declines in early March, with a firm tone in wholesale beef and tight animal supplies providing underlying support. However, cash values have eroded the past two weeks and retailers have shown limited interest lately.
• Choice cutout values rose 80 cents yesterday to $255.51, the highest daily average since March 2. Movement totaled a light 83 loads.
• Live steers averaged $138.30 last week, down $2.31 from the previous week and the second consecutive weekly decline.

Lean hog futures are slightly lower.

• Hog futures extended the past week’s sideways trade, supported by firming cash fundamentals. But buying interest has been limited with the market in a seasonally weak period.
• The CME lean hog index is up 7 cents to $100.85, to a six-month high and the fourth consecutive daily gain. The nearby April contract has narrowed a gap with the index in recent sessions but is still about 95 cents below the latest quote.
• Pork cutout values rose 64 cents yesterday to an average of $103.19 on strong movement totaling nearly 348 loads.
• Initial chart support in April lean hogs is seen at the 10-day moving average of $101.15 and further at last week’s low of $98.475. Resistance is pegged last week’s high of $103.575.