Your Pro Farmer newsletter (March 12, 2022) is now available

The war between Russia and Ukraine moved into its third week with no signs of it ending anytime soon. The initial shock has faded and been replaced with extreme market volatility, especially in wheat and crude oil, as traders try to determine the “right” price for the situation. While supply/demand fundamentals are still a concern, money flow is the overwhelming price driver in wheat and crude oil. The corn and soybean markets are also volatile, but not nearly to the degree as those other markets. USDA’s March Supply & Demand Report reflected “an initial assessment of the short-term impacts” of the war, though the agency warned of the significant uncertainty the situation creates. USDA raised its U.S. corn export forecast to reflect a reduction in Ukraine exports, but it lowered the wheat export figure. While the wheat export pace has been lagging, we expect the U.S. to pick up some lost business out of the Black Sea region. USDA also raised its soybean export forecast due to reduced production and exports in South America. We cover all this and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can download here.