IGC Raises Global 2014-15 Corn Carryover Projection

By: Julianne Johnston

May  29,  2014

The International Grain Council (IGC) has raised its projection for 2014-15 global corn production by 5 MMT from last month and trimmed its global wheat crop projection by 3 MMT, but has raised global total grains carryover by 8 MMT from last month to 398 MMT, up 2 MMT from 2013-14. The group says due to "ample supplies, end-season stocks are consequently likely to edge higher." Specifically, IGC says China's wheat needs should be reduced in the 2014-15 season, "but remain substantial at 288 MMT."

The IGC raised its global total grains trade projection by 2 MMT to 288 MMT, down from 296 MMT the previous season. Meanwhile, IGC projects a 16-MMT increase in global total grains consumption compared to 2013-14. Of note, IGC says following recent bumper crops and a slowdown in demand, China's corn reserves appear large.

Global 2014-15 soybean carryover was increased by 1 MMT to 28 MMT, up 2 MMT from 2013-14. "China’s import demand has remained strong, despite reports of weak soymeal consumption and an erosion of processing margins, and is set to drive a projected 13% increase in global trade to a new record in 2013-14," states the group. "U.S. sales for the Sept-Aug. marketing year are now forecast to rise by 20% year-over-year to 43.5 MMT, as sales cancellations have so far fallen short of expectations."