Statistics Canada Boosts Crop Estimates

Posted on 12/06/2017 9:05 AM

Statistics Canada this morning released its updated and final Canadian crop production estimates for 2017. The agency raised all major crop pegs above its estimates in September and August.  Despite producers' concerns of summer drought on the Prairies and heavier-than-average precipitation in parts of eastern Canada this summer, farmers reported that yields have improved from their preliminary expectations reported in the July 2017 Farm Survey.

Source: Statistics Canada

Canadian farmers reported producing a new all-time record large 21.3 MMT of canola in 2017 -- coming in above all trade estimates and up 8.7% from 19.6 MMT in 2016. This was the result of a record-high harvested area of 22.9 million acres, up 14.1% from 2016. However, farmers reported a 4.9% decrease in average yield to 41.0 bu. per acre, down from the record high set in 2016.

Saskatchewan farmers reported canola production at a record high 11.2 MMT in 2017, the result of a record harvested area of 12.7 million acres (+14.2%). However, average yield fell 8.3% from 2016 to 38.9 bu/acre.

In Alberta, farmers reported a 10.9% increase in canola production from 2016 to 6.8MMT. This was the result of a 17.8% rise in harvested acreage, as average yield fell 5.8% to 43.7 bu/acre in 2017.

Manitoba farmers reported that canola production rose 20.7% to a record high 3.1 MMT. This was the result of a record average yield of 44.0 bu/acre, up 12.8% from 2016, combined with a 6.9% increase in harvested area.

Market reaction in Winnipeg canola futures has so far been expectedly bearish, with the nearby Jan contract now down $2.90 to $506.80/tonne.

Total wheat production in this report advanced above even the high end of trade expectations to a tick under 30.0 million tonnes in 2017. That number, while still 5.5% lower than in 2016, was a significant jump from StatCan’s estimate in September of 27.13 MMT. Harvested area was pegged at 22.2 million acres, with average total wheat yield noted at 49.6 bu/acre.

In Alberta, wheat production edged up 0.8% to 10.0 million tonnes in 2017. This was the result of a 10.7% rise in harvested area to 7.0 million acres, while the average yield was estimated at 52.6 bu/acre.  Farmers in Saskatchewan reported wheat production at 12.9 million tonnes. Average yield was reported at 42.2 bu/acre. Harvested area edged was 11.2 million acres in 2017.

Manitoba farmers reported that wheat production at 4.4 million tonnes in 2017. Although harvested was 2.7 million acres...yield was a strong 59.8 bu/acre.

Minneapolis spring wheat futures turned weaker on this news from Canada...futures were trading steady to slightly higher before the report release...but now 4 to 6 cents lower.

Nationally, Canadian soybean production reached a record high once again in 2017, up 17.8% from 2016 to 7.7 MMT. Average yield fell 11.5% to 39.1 bu/acre, while harvested area reached a record high 7.3 million acres.

In Manitoba, farmers reported record soybean production for the sixth consecutive year, up 26.9% from 2016 to 2.2 MMT in 2017. This was entirely the result of a 45.1% increase in harvested area to a record 2.3 million acres, while the average yield fell 12.6% from 2016 to 36.1 bu/acre.

Ontario soybean growers reported a 12.5% production increase to a record high 3.8 MMT in 2017. Harvested area rose 13.3% to match the 2014 record high of 3.1 million acres, while average yield decreased 0.7% to 45.6 bu/acre.

In Saskatchewan, where soybean harvested area more than tripled to 845,000 acres in 2017, farmers reported soybean production of 479,000 tonnes, up 276,500 tonnes from 2016. Meanwhile, Quebec producers reported a 1.3% production decrease to 1.1 million tonnes.

Barley and oats
Canadian farmers reported a 10.2% decrease in barley production from last year to 7.9 MMT in 2017, nut was still at the high end of trade expectations. This year-to-year decline was the result of a 4.9% decrease in harvested area to 5.2 million acres, combined with a 5.4% drop in average
yield to 69.4 bu/acre.

Meanwhile, Canadian farmers reported oats production rose 16.6% from 2016 to 3.7 MMT -- though was a marginal decline from the Sept agency estimate. Record high average yield was reported at 93.1 bu/acre, combined with a 15.7% increase in harvested area from last year to 2.6 million acres.

Pea and lentil production came in slightly higher than the Sept report, but both were inside the range of trade expectations -- so no real news there. India politics currently leads price discovery anyway.

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