Some Perspective on USDA's South American Crop Pegs

Posted on 09/18/2018 11:06 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier gave his analysis of USDA’s South American soybean and corn crop estimate in his newsletter this week. His comments follow.

  • Brazil soybeans (USDA)
    • 2017-18: 119.5 MMT
    • 2018-19: 120.5 MMT
    • Cordonnier: I have no disagreement with either estimate
  • Brazil corn (USDA)
    • 2017-18: 82.0 MMT
    • 2018-19: 94.5 MMT
    • Cordonnier: “I think the 2017-18 Brazilian corn estimate could still move a little lower in future reports to the range of 81.0 MMT.”
  • Argentine soybeans (USDA)
    • 2017-18: 37.8 MMT
    • 2018-19: 57.0 MMT
    • Cordonnier: “I think the 2017-18 old crop estimate is a little too high, but I have no problem with the estimate for 2018-19.”
  • Argentine corn (USDA)
    • 2017-18: 32.0 MMT
    • 2018-19: 41.0 MMT
    • Cordonnier: “I think the old crop corn estimate is a little too high, but I have no problem with the 2018-19 estimate.”

Cordonnier also pointed out that there are a lot of uncertainties for the 2018-19 Argentine growing season due to financial problems within the country. Estimates are “all over the place,” he points out, adding, “one thing is certain, the current estimates will likely change going forward.”

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