Report Snapshot: USDA Hikes New-crop Bean Carryover Nearly 200 Million Bushels

Posted on 07/12/2018 10:57 AM

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2017-18

2018-19

USDA

2.027

1.552

Average est.

2.107

1.712

USDA June

2.102

1.577

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2017-18

2018-19

USDA

465

580

Average est.

507

471

USDA June

505

385

 

Wheat – billion bushels

 

2017-18

2018-19

USDA

1.100

0.985

Average est.

NA

0.973

USDA June

1.080

0.946

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2017-18

2018-19

USDA

4.00

4.00

Average est.

NA

4.78

USDA June

4.20

4.70

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2017-18

2018-19

USDA

191.73

151.96

Average est.

191.42

156.27

USDA June

192.69

154.69

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2017-18

2018-19

USDA

96.02

98.27

Average est.

91.76

88.15

USDA June

92.49

87.02

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2017-18

2018-19

USDA

273.50

260.88

Average est.

272.46

265.05

USDA June

272.37              

266.16

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2017-18

2018-19

USDA

84.96

77.84

Average est.

NA

82.79

USDA June

88.21

83.02

 

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2017-18

June (May)

2018-19

June (May)

U.S.

370.96 (370.96)

361.46 (356.63)

Argentina

33.00 (33.00)

41.00 (41.00)

Brazil

83.50 (85.00)

96.00 (96.00)

South Africa

13.80 (13.50)

14.00 (14.00)

China

215.89 (215.89)

225.00 (225.00)

Soybeans – MMT

 

2017-18

June (May)

2018-19

June (May)

U.S.

119.52 (119.52)

117.30 (116.48)

Argentina

37.00 (37.00)

57.00 (56.00)

Brazil

119.50 (119.00)

120.50 (118.00)

Paraguay

10.00 (10.00)

9.80 (9.80)

China

14.20 (14.20)

14.50 (14.10)

Wheat – MMT

 

2017-18

June (May)

2018-19

June (May)

U.S.

47.37 (47.37)

51.21 (49.74)

Argentina

18.00 (18.00)

19.50 (19.50)

Australia

21.30 (21.50)

22.00 (24.00)

Canada

30.00 (30.00)

32.50 (32.50)

EU

151.58 (151.58)

145.00 (149.40)

Cotton – million bales

 

2017-18

June (May)

2018-19

June (May)

U.S.

20.92 (20.92)

18.50 (19.50)

Australia

4.90 (4.90)

3.70 (3.80)

Brazil

9.20 (8.90)

9.50 (9.00)

India

29.00 (28.50)

28.70 (28.50)

China

27.50 (27.50)

26.50 (26.50)

 

U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.881

Average est.

1.822

USDA June

1.827

Winter wheat– billion bu.

USDA

1.193

Average est.

1.190

USDA June

1.198

HRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

657.385

Average est.

645.000

USDA June

650.373

SRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

302.815

Average est.

318.000

USDA June

315.500

White winter wheat – million bu.

USDA

232.385

Average est.

228.000

USDA June

231.843

Other spring wheat – million bu.

USDA

613.970

Average est.

599.000

USDA June

NA

Durum wheat – million bu.

USDA

74.892

Average est.

72.000

USDA June

NA

 

Expectations for 2018
U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

USDA

14.230

174.0

Average est.

14.269

174.9

USDA June

14.040

174.0

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

USDA

4.310

48.5

Average est.

4.314

48.6

USDA June

4.280

48.5

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

USDA

18.50

845

Average est.*

19.60

NA

USDA June

19.50

841

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg.

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