Rains During the Next Week Reduce Risks for Extreme July Heat in Midwest

Posted on 06/20/2018 9:41 AM

Soaking rains will target much of the central U.S. from Oklahoma to Ohio during the next eight days and temperatures will be close to normal or below. Many fields will get a month’s worth of rain during that period before a much hotter and drier period evolves next week and lasts into early July, according to Ryan Truchelut, president of WeatherTiger LLC in Tallahassee, Florida.

The increase in soil moisture will limit the development of extreme heat in the first half of July as a warmer, drier weather pattern evolves for much of the Midwest. High pressure will begin to build by the middle of next week, pushing storms to the north into Canada and allowing for temperatures to rise and drier pattern to build across the Midwest. The second half of July will see  temperatures near normal to slightly warmer with a few timely showers. Soil moisture provides a feedback mechanism in the atmosphere to hold down temperatures and create rain showers. 

``There is less than a 25% chance for extreme heat and dry weather to develop in July because of the increase in soil moisture this coming week,’’ Truchelut said Wednesday.

The main agricultural weather threat  resides in the Black Sea and Europe regions. Forecasts remain warm to hot across much of Europe and parts of Russia into the middle of July.  A few light showers this weekend in Ukraine will provide some temporary relief.  This is an ``unfavorable weather pattern’’ that is expected to curb grain output potential, Truchelut said. The current pattern shows few signs of changing during July, increasing risks to corn production and spring wheat output.  

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