Preview of USDA's Aug. 10 Crop Reports

Posted on 08/08/2018 7:48 AM

Above-trendline yields expected for corn, beans… Traders expect USDA’s first survey-based estimates of the corn and soybean crops to signal above-trendline yields are likely this year. The soybean crop estimate is expected to be record-large, while the average pre-report estimate from a Reuters poll would put the corn crop estimate at the third highest on record behind 2016 and 2017. The estimate of the 2018 U.S. cotton crop is expected to be roughly 2.5 million bales smaller than last year’s crop. USDA’s wheat crop estimate is anticipated to decline about 31 million bu. from last month, based on the average pre-report estimate.

The tables below lay out the pre-report expectations, based on a Reuters survey of analysts (Bloomberg for cotton). We’ll have post-report coverage online and in Evening Report Friday.

Expectations for 2018
U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

14.411

176.2

Range

14.150-14.740

171.0-180.2

USDA July proj.

14.230

174.0

PF/Doane

14.473

177.0

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

4.407

49.6

Range

4.280-4.576

48.0-51.5

USDA July proj.

4.310

48.5

PF/Doane

4.445

50.0

 

Cotton

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Average est.*

18.39

NA

Range*

18.00-19.00

NA

USDA July proj.

18.50

845

PF/Doane

18.6

825

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.850

Range

1.700-1.885

USDA July

1.881

PF/Doane

1.860

USDA 2017-18

1.741

Winter wheat– billion bu.

Average est.

1.180

Range

1.050-1.201

USDA July

1.193

USDA 2017-18

1.269

HRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

656

Range

635-665

USDA July

657

USDA 2017-18

750

SRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

302

Range

290-313

USDA July

303

USDA 2017-18

292

White winter wheat – million bu.

Average est.

230

Range

210-240

USDA July

232

USDA 2017-18

227

Other spring wheat – million bu.

Average est.

601

Range

570-633

USDA July

614

USDA 2017-18

416

Durum wheat – million bu.

Average est.

74

Range

69-78

USDA July

75

USDA 2017-18

55

 

 

U.S. new-crop corn, bean ending stocks expected to rise… USDA’s first estimates of the corn and soybean crops are expected to push up projected ending stocks for both commodities in Friday’s Supply & Demand tables. Even with an anticipated modest rise for corn, new-crop stocks are expected to be down nearly 400 million bu. from the current marketing year. Soybean ending stocks, however, are expected to show a nearly 200-million-bu. increase year-over year. Smaller new-crop carryover forecasts are anticipated for wheat and cotton.

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

2.021

1.636

Range

1.900-2.137

1.457-1.812

USDA July

2.027

1.552

 

Soybeans – million bushels

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

460

638

Range

437-480

565-726

USDA July

465

580

 

Wheat – million bushels

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

NA

961

Range

NA

850-1,018

USDA July

1.100

985

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.*

NA

3.86

Range*

NA

3.5-4.00

USDA July

4.00

4.00

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

 

Global wheat ending stocks will tighten… Unless USDA throws a complete curve ball Friday, the projection for global wheat ending stocks will decline even more amid expected downward revisions to world wheat production. Traders anticipate a nearly 10-MMT decline in global wheat ending stocks from last month. Global new-crop corn and soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly from last month, based on the average pre-report estimates. But that would still leave global corn carryover with a projected sharp year-over-year decline. Global new-crop soybean carryover is expected to be up from 2017-18.

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

190.81

152.59

Range

189.00-192.62

148.00-158.23

USDA July

191.73

151.96

 

Soybeans – MMT

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

95.53

99.33

Range

92.00-97.00

94.00-102.20

USDA July

96.02

98.27

 

Wheat – MMT

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

273.12

256.42

Range

271.00-274.00

250.00-259.90

USDA July

273.50

260.88

 

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est. *

NA

77.31

Range*

NA

75.00-78.50

USDA July

84.96

77.84

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

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