International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its global corn crop estimate for 2017-18 by 6 MMT to 1.048 billion MT today, “mainly because of poorer maize output prospects in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.” This plus a slight uptick in IGC’s trade estimate resulted in an 8-MMT drop in its estimate of carryover stocks from January that now stands at 314 MMT, 21 MMT under year-ago levels.
In 2018-19, IGC expects little change in global corn acreage, but it anticipates improved results out of South America to boost global production from 2017-18 levels.
IGC made no change it its wheat balance sheet for 2017-18. But looking ahead to 2018-19, it says “reductions in both area and average yields may see the global wheat harvest recede, and stocks are predicted to come down for the first time since 2012-13.”
Reduced crop prospects for Argentina also prompted IGC to cut 2 MMT from its global soybean crop estimate for 2017-18 that now stands at 347 MMT, 3 MMT under 2016-17 levels. But IGC also increased its estimates for carrying and consumption, resulting in a net increase of 4 MMT in its carryover stocks estimate from last month to 44 MMT.
Looking ahead to 2018-19, IGC says it expects global harvested area to climb 2%, with Brazil and the U.S. both expected to see gains.