Cordonnier also lowered his Argentine soybean crop estimate 1 MMT to 50 MMT, and he has a lower bias going forward, noting disappointing weekend rains following hot, dry conditions.
He also notes there is little rain in the forecast this week and while there is some precip in the 6 to 10 day outlook, he points out that the pattern has been for rains to underperform forecasts. Plus temperatures are expected to climb again over the two-week outlook period.
The timing of any rains and warm spell will be key, as Cordonnier reports around 40% of the crop is currently setting pods and around 15% is filling them.
He reiterated that final yield for the crop will be determined by rainfall over the next four to five weeks. “If Argentina would receive some good rains during that period, the soybeans could make a partial recovery. If it stays hot and dry, the yields will decline even further,” Cordonnier said, bottom-lining the situation.
Cordonnier also cut his Argentine corn crop estimate 1 MMT to 38 MMT, and he has a neutral to lower bias going forward, again citing recent and expected adverse weather. “I think the hot and dry conditions in Argentina have impacted the corn crop more so than soybeans,” Cordonnier details.
He also says that both early and late-planted corn is being affected by adverse weather.