Brazil’s statistics agency Conab lowered its safrinha corn crop estimate from 58.22 MMT to 56.01 MMT today. This represents an 11.37-MMT plunge from the year prior. Its total 2017-18 corn crop estimate now stands at 82.93 MMT, down more than 2 MMT from its prior estimate and 14.92 MMT (15.2%) under last year’s crop.
South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has been even more aggressive with his cuts, pegging Brazil’s total corn crop at 81 MMT.
For comparison, USDA in June lowered its Brazilian corn crop estimate to 85.00 MMT. Today’s South American estimates signal there’s probably some room to the downside for its crop peg. A smaller Brazilian corn crop adds to a friendlier global supply picture for the grain.
Of note, even with the reduced corn crop, storage is an issue due to the ongoing impasse over higher freight rates. Farmers are putting their corn in silo bags and grain elevators are piling corn outside, according to Cordonnier.
On soybeans, Conab once again hiked its 2017-18 Brazilian soybean crop estimate, pushing it another 830,000 MT higher to 118.88 MMT. This would shatter last season’s record-high 114.08 MMT. Cordonnier estimates the Brazilian bean crop at 117 MMT.
On June 12, USDA got aggressive with its Brazilian bean crop estimate, upping its peg 2 MMT to 119 MMT. Considering the fact that this crop peg is one of the highest for the Brazilian bean crop, the department is unlikely to raise its crop peg further.